The Market in Pictures, October 11

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

John Luke: The past few years have seen a change in the leading contributors to inflation, first goods and now services

Data as of 10.10.2024

Brett: with the overall cost of goods now flat year-over-year by government measures

Data as of 10.10.2024

John Luke: and the “supercore” services components now re-accelerating after hopes this favored FOMC measure would track towards their 2% target

Data as of 10.10.2024

Arch: Homeowners insurance is becoming an acute pain point for consumers, even those away from the most obvious hot spots

Data as of September 2024

Joseph: though as we’re seeing, there are really no areas completely safe from Mother Nature’s impact

Beckham: and the value of those homes being insured has risen dramatically in the past few years 

Data as of July 2024

John Luke: Despite a job market that’s less tight than it was a year or two ago, the employment situation is nowhere near recession levels

Data as of August 2024

Brad: and general measures that have often driven consumer despair remain at healthy levels

Data as of 10.10.2024

Brian: but it will be interesting to see what corporations say about the levels of customer demand

Data as of July 2024

Dave: In typical fashion, Q3 earnings estimates have been falling throughout the quarter

Source: Strategas as of 10.07.2024

Brad: though that’s not stopping strategists from lifting estimates into 2025 and 2026

Joseph: also notable, stocks have a history of rising during this early phase of earnings seasons

Data as of July 2024

Dave: We’re just about two full years into this bull run, one of the better in recent times

Dave: though as we all know, small caps have been a serious laggard in this one

John Luke: On the other end of the spectrum, the biggest of the big have had huge gains backed up by business fundamentals

Arch: and despite comparisons to the dot-com bubble, those fundamental measures don’t illustrate similar levels of crazy

JD: We talk about this a lot; the way to protect against government spending is by owning more risk assets, with guardrails

Data as of September 2024

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