The Market in Pictures, October 13

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

Beckham: Earnings estimates show a turn, with the cuts now in the rearview mirror

Data as of 10.05.2023

Dave: but it’s interesting to note that estimates further out were never really cut

Source: Bianco as of 10.09.2023

John Luke: and trends going into this season are really divided, depending on the sector

Source: Bernstein

Brad: It’s also important to distinguish by size, as the rate hikes have impacted smaller companies much more than larger ones

Source: Strategas as of 10.10.2023

Joseph: which accelerates the trend we’ve seen since the GFC in large caps staying more lean than small caps

Source: PGM as of 10.09.2023

Dave: Credit spreads can be a canary in the coal mine, bouncing a bit but still near historic lows

Source: Strategas as of 10.12.2023

Dave: same with consumer credit, delinquencies bouncing from lows but general debt levels are low

Source: BofA as of 10.10.2023

Brett: also watching jobless claims, they remain low but one leading indicator warrants a closer look

Source: Pantheon Macro via Daily Shot as of 10.12.2023

Brad: The price of gas gets all of the Main Street chatter, but its impact has consistently fallen over time

Data as of September 2023

Joseph: and US energy producers have used technology to crank out extra oil per rig in recent years

Dave: Rising real rates have been the story of the past year, as long-term inflation expectations haven’t budged

Source: BofA as of 10.09.2023

Dave: and the bond vigilantes are back, pushing the Federal government to slow its spending growth

Source: Morgan Stanley as of 10.06.2023

Dave: as if the looming wall of maturing federal debt shouldn’t already be putting the spenders on alert

Source: Strategas as of September 2023

Beckham: Take note, our chosen industry is the one deemed most ripe for artificial intelligence (AI) impact

Data as of September 2023

Brad: We don’t make our decisions based on the calendar, but mid-October through the end of the year has historically had a positive impact on returns

Data as of September 2023

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