The Market in Pictures, October 17

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from volatility waking up to single stock movements to earnings power and the new and evolving job market. Have a great weekend!

Brett: Sometimes markets just need an excuse to clear out some excesses

Data as of 10.10.2025

John Luke: and this period without pullbacks has emboldened traders to hop on stocks with questionable fundamentals

Source: FT as of 10.13.2025

Mark: with single stocks attracting historically high levels of trade interest relative to the indexes

Source: Cboe as of 10.13.2025

Ten: This three year run has lacked the broader market participation generally seen in bull markets

Data as of 10.12.2025

Beckham: though much of that is sector dispersion, as strength in leading sectors has been much broader than in lagging sectors

Data as of 10.14.2025

Dave: The media spends a lot of time on the stories of the day, but ultimately earnings have continued to be the primary driver of market outcomes

Dave: and for all of the concern over concentration, the profitability of the popular Mag 7 names has matched their superior market performance

Brad: S&P 500 companies have a history of consistently outperforming earnings expectations

Data as of 10.10.2025

Brad: with 4-8% above consensus being a common outcome in the past few years

Data as of 10.10.2025

Brian: Probably due to artificial intelligence, and maybe a bit from economic uncertainty, employee turnover has shrunk quite a bit from recent years

Source: Apollo as of 10.10.2025

Brad: also reflected in payroll growth falling in search of a “new normal” level of job creation

Source: Strategas as of 10.03.2025

Jake: The always-changing nature of the economy is one reason that markets have a hard time forecasting future recessions

Source: Goldman as of 10.03.2025

Dave: and recent recession calls have been futile, as companies around the world undertake new spending projects even outside of AI

Jake: Foreigners love US stocks, and have for some time

Source: Goldman as of 10.10.2025

JD: and their central banks are continuing to stockpile non-fiat currencies such as gold

Data as of 10.06.2025

John Luke: Recent “quantitative tightening” in US has been in short-term instruments, as the Fed continues to buy long bonds to keep those yields from rising

Source: @Econimica as of 10.14.2025

Brad: If AI is a bubble, it’s a whole lot tamer than notable bubbles of the past

Source: Strategas as of 10.13.2025

Disclosures

Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed. 

Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially. 

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