The Market in Pictures, October 20

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

John Luke: September retail sales were too hot for the bond market’s liking, with the weakness spilling into equity valuations

Source: Bloomberg as of 10.17.2023

Beckham: but the tricky part now is that some areas are finally seeing weakness, like auto loans

Source: Pavilion as of 10.18.2023

John Luke: Overall, the “Supercore CPI” remains higher than the Fed seems to want

Data as of 10.16.2023

Beckham: and historically, 10 year bonds have yielded a good bit higher than CPI

Source: Strategas as of 10.17.2023

Dave: Globally, central bank balance sheets have been reversing the large expansion since the GFC 

Data as of October 2023

John Luke: with the US leading the way in both expansion and contraction

Source: Bianco as of 10.12.2023

John Luke: Interest expense as a % of overall US government spending is expanding rapidly

Source: Pavilion as of September 2023

John Luke: at a time when defense spending is starting to grow from a trough

Source: Piper Sandler as of September 2023

John Luke: with these expenses coming at a time when huge amounts of US government debt are coming due

Source: Strategas as of 10.16.2023

Dave: The heavily-discussed “Magnificent Seven” make up close to half of the widely-owned US growth funds

Source: Strategas as of 10.16.2023

Dave: part of which is due to the nonstop money flows into growth funds vs. value funds

Source: Strategas as of 10.16.2023

Brad: That said, those companies have indeed performed better at a business level

Source: Strategas as of 10.17.2023

Brett: also seen in the use of debt by smaller companies vs. larger ones

Data as of October 2023

Dave: Can’t label companies as good/bad only by size, but there are some real differences in quality when you break out by size and style

Source: BofA as of September 2023

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