The Market in Pictures, October 25

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

Joseph: Bonds have been the greater source of volatility since the Fed cut rates in September

Data as of 10.24.2024

JD: and fund managers are losing enthusiasm for allocating to bonds

Data as of 10.21.2024

John Luke: Neither party will bring austerity but there’s been a notable correlation between the odds of a Trump win, and bond yields

Data as of 10.22.2024

John Luke: This has fed into higher mortgage rates, which many had hoped would be coming down as the Fed starting cutting rates

Data as of 10.24.2024

Arch: with the loss of downward rate momentum feeding into continued normalization of housing supply

Brad: Evidence is mounting that the US economy is not at imminent risk of a recession

Source: Sevens Report 10.21.2024

Brett: with recent economic surprises less likely to be occurring on the downside

Data as of 10.23.2024

Beckham: and fewer rate cuts now being priced in by the bond market

Data as of 10.22.2024

Brett: Earnings season is underway, will be interesting to note if recent trends regarding onshoring continue

Dave: as we head into the heart of earnings, Q3 estimates show continued Mag 7 dominance but future earnings growth broadening out

Data as of 10.23.2024

Dave: the real story is that profit margins for the largest US corporations continue to improve

Source: Strategas as of 10.21.2024

Beckham: this profitability and productivity miracle is a huge reason US stocks have dominated despite a decline in global economic impact

Source: Verdad as of March 2024

Brian: Wall Street strategists tend to just follow along with market movement, and like 2023 they just keep chasing prices higher

Data as of 10.21.2024

Brad: this as we head towards the setting of 2025 targets what is a historically favorable season for stocks

Source: Strategas as of 10.24.2024

John Luke: Stock buybacks have become a political target, but they’ve been a huge tailwind for investors

Data as of 10.21.2024

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