The Market in Pictures, October 31

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from an amazing run in stocks to those left behind, to the FOMC and inflation, and housing.

Happy Halloween!

Brian: Maybe it’s “due” for a pause, but barely a speck of dirt on the S&P in the past 6 months

Data as of 10.29.2025

John: this as we head into the most seasonally favorable stretch of the calendar year

Jake: Another feature of this historic run has been the predominance of strong market opens

Source: Bespoke as of 10.29.2025

Brett: and despite concerns that it’s been only tech, the rest of the largest stocks have been generally solid as well

Data as of 10.26.2025

Ten: If not for tech, large-cap investors would probably feel OK about the general performance of key sectors

Data as of 10.29.2025

John Luke: but it’s hard to argue that the megacap tech dominance has not been justified

Data as of 10.31.2025

Brian: A notable feature in recent weeks has been a high level of dispersion in the cost of options across individual stocks

Dave: with much of the dispersion attributable to the speculative interest in low quality stocks

Data as of 10.24.2025

Joseph: The money flowing into high beta stocks is not just a US phenomenon

Source: S&P Global

JD: but a culture of superior corporate profitability might be

Data as of 10.08.2025

John Luke: The Fed is a bit squeezed in what it can actually do to support employment without sparking inflation

Source: TS Lombard as of 10.28.2025

Beckham: and they walked back any guarantees of a December rate cut

Source: CME Fed Watch as of 10.31.2025

Dave: The major challenge is that 3% inflation is settling in at a stable level, above the stated 2% target

Source: Raymond James as of 10.27.2025

Brad: with a large portion of the measurements working towards 3% from both higher and lower levels

Source: Duality Research as of 10.24.2025

Mark: There’s no way around it, individuals are embracing new ways to speculate, whether it’s meme stocks or zero-day options or now, prediction markets

Disclosures

Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed. 

Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially. 

This commentary offers generalized research, not personalized investment advice. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment services or performance. Nothing in this commentary should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future investment returns. All investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with an investment & tax professional before implementing any investment strategy. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible. 

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