The Market in Pictures, September 12

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from inflation to rates, the economy and government spending, and tariffs and the state of the equity bull. Have a great weekend!

Joseph: Inflation measures running above 2% year-over-year are expanding, but runaway components are shrinking

Source: Duality Research as of 09.11.2025

John Luke: and expectations for longer-term inflation remain in the 2.5% range that has held for the past few years

Data as of 09.10.2025

Brian: After a spike earlier in the year, investors have steadily reduced their requirement for inflation compensation

Source: Aptus via Bloomberg as of 09.11.2025

John Luke: and the impact of lower yields will be felt differently by different groups, with the government hoping to cut its interest expense

Data as of 09.10.2025

Brad: The job market has been weak, but perhaps conditions are bottoming as companies look to interest rate cuts?

Source: Raymond James as of 09.10.2025

Beckham: at a time when government tax receipts are running strong

Data as of 09.08.2025

Brad: and equity market participants are clearly in the “better days ahead” camp as discretionary stocks dominate consumer staples stocks

Source: Strategas as of 09.09.2025

John Luke: Cutting the federal deficit will take a lot more than lower interest expense

Source: Strategas as of 09.10.2025

Jake: with reduced government headcount a possible contributor

Source: Bespoke as of 09.08.2025

John Luke: but a whole lot more progress is needed, just to get back to historical spending patterns

Data as of August 2025

Ten: Remember tariffs? Still in the news, but not the dominant story they were in the spring or even early summer

Data as of 09.11.2025

Dave: and companies using their healthy profit margins to quietly eat the tariff costs without passing it on to consumers

Data as of 09.10.2025

Dave: Going on 3 years, it’s been a pretty normal bull market from the lows of September 2022

Brian: and once again, the individuals responding to sentiment surveys are growing more cautious with each new high for stocks

Source: AAII as of 09.10.2025

Dave: Small cap stocks have put up a good fight in recent weeks; we’ll see if rate cuts help them hold the strength better than in past attempts

Brad: and looking further back, relative valuations for small caps vs. large are as low as they’ve been since the dot-com bubble

John: Stories of Mag 7 dominance lead the headlines, but there are plenty of industries contributing to market performance

Source: Bespoke as of 09.12.2025

Disclosures

Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed.

Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially.

This commentary offers generalized research, not personalized investment advice. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment services or performance. Nothing in this commentary should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future investment returns. All investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with an investment & tax professional before implementing any investment strategy. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible.

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