The Market in Pictures, September 15

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

Dave: September is famous for being the weakest month for stocks, with the 2^nd half being the most challenging

Daily Returns for S&P 500

Source: Goldman Sachs as of Sept 2023

Beckham: and the inability of companies to buy their own shares in the weeks ahead doesn’t help

Source: Market Ear as of 09.12.2023

John Luke: Another challenge for stocks in the short-term is the valuation and sentiment backdrop

Source: PGM as of 09.12.2023

Dave: and at the moment, cash feels appealing to many against an uncertain backdrop

Source: Strategas as of 09.13.2023

Dave: Speaking of cash, money market funds are grabbing most of the inflows

Source: Strategas as of 09.12.2023

Brad: quite a change from most of the period since the financial crisis

Dave: The largest US tech companies continue to dominate the market cap weighted S&P 500

Source: Strategas as of 09.11.2023

Joseph: expanding again in 2023 through eye-popping returns relative to the rest of the index

Data as of 09.13.2023

Dave: but there’s hope for smaller companies to recapture some mojo if economic growth resumes

Source: Strategas as of 09.12.2023

Beckham: and some dispersion has often been helpful in keeping a wall of worry intact

Source: DataTrek as of Sept 2023

John Luke: The latest CPI report shows a troubling persistence in the rate of “super-core” inflation

Data as of 09.13.2023

John Luke: and the tightness in energy supplies isn’t going to help the Fed instill confidence that inflation has been broken

Data as of 09.12.2023

Dave: Correlation is a key input to diversification, and the challenge is that it moves around based on the state of inflation

Source: Strategas as of 09.12.2023

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