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The Aptus Blog

Market notes, charts, investment concepts, and timely market updates, directly from our investment team.

2026-10-12 · Bonds & RatesIs the Bond Market Overreacting?As Treasury bonds take out the highest yield levels since the early 2000s, there is no scarcity of headlines hitting the tape. Treasuries have been trading like a risk as2026-09-17 · Bonds & RatesWhat’s Really Driving Yields HigherThe 10-year Treasury yield is sitting around 5.00%, and the 30-year at ~5.37% (as of 9/16/26) — both brushing up against levels last seen in 2007. The Fed met today and d2026-09-03 · Bonds & RatesThe Market Is Doing The Fed’s WorkLast Friday morning at Jackson Hole, Chairman Warsh made the case that it’s hard to argue financial conditions are restrictive. As of Wednesday morning, the bond market h2026-08-28 · Bonds & RatesJackson Hole: Project RealignmentFed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks provided the market with what participants hoped for: A more thorough view from the Fed on the economy and inflation, which appeare2026-07-30 · Bonds & RatesFOMC: One Last Pause?The FOMC left the fed funds rate unchanged, with no action for the fifth consecutive meeting, even as inflation lingers above target. No change was the broad consensus; h2026-07-16 · Bonds & RatesAre We Hitting an Inflation Trifecta?Every so often, you see a shift in the data that lines up with a transitional moment; this week’s developments could be that moment. We just had three instances that coul2026-06-18 · Bonds & RatesWarsh Lays Down the LawThe Federal Reserve left the Fed Funds rate unchanged in a 3.50%-3.75% range today, as expected. The dot-plot median forecast increased by 1/8 of a point this year and by2026-05-29 · Bonds & RatesThe Bond Environment Entering the Warsh RegimeTreasury Curve Movements The yield curve today looks drastically different than the beginning of the year. The largest increases have occurred in the belly of the yield c2026-05-14 · Bonds & RatesAround the Bond Market, May 2026Core CPI (ex-food and energy) rose 0.38% in April after rising 0.20% in March. The Year over Year (YoY) Core rose from 2.60% to 2.74%. Headline CPI was up 0.64% on the he2026-04-22 · Bonds & RatesWarsh Faces the SenatePresident Trump’s nominee, Kevin Warsh, appeared before the US Senate seeking ultimate approval to be named the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve. While the US President 2026-03-27 · Bonds & RatesLooking for Clarity in BondsMarket Pricing Fed Hikes? The probability of a Fed hike in September has risen to nearly 60%. The 2-year Treasury topped 4% and is trading ~39bps above the target Fed fun2026-03-12 · Bonds & RatesAround the Bond Market, March 2026February CPI: As Expected In February, the CPI rose 0.267% headline and 0.216% core, effectively matching the consensus of 0.3% and 0.2%. Year-on-year, the headline index2026-02-13 · Bonds & RatesAround the Bond Market, February 2026Yield Curve Steepening Trend Continues The graphic below shows the shape of the current yield curve (black) vs. a month ago (red), and vs. 1 year ago (blue). As the Fed h2026-01-30 · Bonds & RatesBig Week at the FOMCJanuary FOMC The Fed held its policy rate in the 3.5-3.75% range earlier this week, largely as expected. The vote was 10-2, where Governors Miran and Waller dissented in 2026-01-15 · Bonds & RatesAround the Bond Market, January 2026Another Cool-ish Inflation Report The CPI rose +0.3% m/m and 2.7% y/y in Dec. The core (ex-food & energy) measure was +0.2% m/m and 2.6% y/y. Source: Stifel as of 01.2025-12-31 · Bonds & RatesAround the Bond Market, December 2025On their own, bonds have been better in 2025 than in recent years. Capital appreciation across the complex may be limited from here, but the bigger story is the support t2025-12-11 · Bonds & RatesDecember FOMC: A Holiday TreatThe FOMC release was less hawkish than feared (milkshake) with a dovish presser (cherry on top). We view December 10th’s move as a risk management cut given a slowing job2025-11-17 · Bonds & RatesAround the Bond Market, November 2025Fewer Cuts? The Fed funds futures market now shows a 48% chance of a December rate cut, down from 100% on the day of the October Fed meeting. We saw a Bloomberg News head2025-10-31 · Bonds & RatesFOMC Hedges a BitAs expected, the Fed lowered the federal funds target rate 25bps on Wednesday to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, the second consecutive rate reduction this year and now markin2025-10-24 · Bonds & RatesAnother All Clear for Rate CutsThe September CPI report, delayed for more than two weeks, was finally released this morning. The September Inflation data is an important number used to calculate the 202025-09-26 · Bonds & RatesThe State of Bonds Entering Q4Tug of War: Goods vs Services Inflation Goods inflation is rising because of tariffs, while the rise in services prices stabilizes. Source: Apollo. As of 9/22/25. As a wh2025-09-18 · Bonds & RatesSeptember 2025 FOMC: A Risk Management CutThe Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected by a quarter point, to a stated range of 4.0-4.25%. This marks 125 bps in reductions since initiating the cutting cycle2025-09-12 · Bonds & RatesAround the Bond Market, September 2025CPI came in a touch hotter than expected in August, with the headline rising 0.382%, rounding to 0.4%, and the core rising 0.346%, rounding down to 0.3%. The consensus wa2025-08-25 · Bonds & RatesOpportunity in Municipal Bonds?We wanted to put together a note to discuss the recent underperformance of municipal bonds relative to their taxable brethren (MUB vs AGG, shown below). Tax-free bonds ha2025-08-22 · Bonds & RatesNotes from Jackson HoleFed Chairman Jay Powell finally delivered his long-anticipated address to leading economists and academics. A few quotes that caught our attention, not to mention the mar2025-08-15 · Bonds & RatesAugust Inflation: Firm But Tariff Categories Better than FearedHeadline CPI rose 0.20% in July, in line with economists’ expectations. The YoY rate was unchanged at 2.7%. After two warmer months, food prices inched up just 0.05%. Ene2025-07-31 · Bonds & RatesFOMC : Searching for the Neutral RateThe Fed left rates unchanged for its 5th straight meeting — keeping the fed funds range 4.25%-4.5% which was widely expected. Governors Miki Bowman and Chris Waller disse2025-07-18 · Bonds & RatesStrong Sales, Weak InflationCore CPI came in softer than expected for the 5th straight month: 0.2%, month over month (MoM) and 2.9% year over year (YoY). The YoY number did tick up slightly given th2025-06-20 · Bonds & RatesJune 2025 FOMCAs expected, the Fed opted to hold interest rates steady for the fourth consecutive meeting in a range of 4.25% to 4.50%. The latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)2025-05-30 · Bonds & RatesBreaking Down 10 Year Bond YieldsWhile there is certainly a lot going on in rates markets, it’s been interesting to see participants give more attention to the fiscal backdrop of the US government. It co2025-05-21 · Bonds & RatesMoody’s Downgrade: Should We Care?Last Friday, Moody’s rating agency lowered the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 (their version of AA+). Technically, this doesn’t change the US’s overall credit rating be2025-05-08 · Bonds & RatesMay FOMC: A Pause for Thought→ FED SAYS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT OUTLOOK HAS ‘INCREASED FURTHER’ → FED: RISKS OF HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT, HIGHER INFLATION HAVE RISEN → FED HOLDS BENCHMARK RATE IN 4.25%-4.5% TAR2025-04-25 · Bonds & RatesAround the Bond Market, April 2025President Trump Critiques the Fed Earlier this week, President Trump indicated he thinks the Fed should be “early, or on time” cutting rates, but not “too late,” adding i2025-04-11 · Bonds & RatesNo Help From BondsCPI Update: Softer Than Feared The latest inflation report showed that consumer prices cooled more than expected. The CPI fell -0.1% in March, the first monthly decline s2025-03-21 · Bonds & RatesFOMC is Waiting for Clarity, TooFed Waiting, Like the Rest of Us The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met this week, deciding to leave the reserve rate unchanged as expected (a unanimous decision am2025-03-06 · Bonds & RatesDueling Mandates in Play for FOMCAtlanta Fed GDP Now Shows First Signs of GDP Sputtering in Several Years The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quar2025-02-21 · Bonds & RatesAround the Bond Market, Feb 2025Quantitative Tightening Ending Soon This week’s press about the Fed minutes release were the same: the Fed is worried about tariffs and is in no rush to lower rates. But 2025-02-12 · Bonds & RatesCPI Update: Fed on HoldCPI rose 0.5% in January, above the 0.3% gain expected and an uptick from a 0.4% increase in December. Year-over-year, prices rose 3.0%, a tenth of a percentage point hig2025-02-06 · Bonds & RatesNot Relying on Help From FOMCFOMC Update The January FOMC meeting went as expected (no rate cut). Chairman Powell offered limited forward guidance, stating that “we’re meaningfully above” the neutral2025-01-24 · Bonds & RatesAround the Bond Market: January 2025Progress on the Debt to GDP Ratios… Kinda The CBO, a non-partisan budget agency, updated its forecasts for the U.S. budget deficits for the next 10 years. The report show2025-01-10 · Bonds & Rates2025 Rate Cut OutlookThe market is currently pricing in 1.53 cuts for 2025 (Fed says 2). As we’ve said before, we believe the FOMC has gotten its rate closer to neutral. This positions them t2024-12-19 · Bonds & RatesFOMC: Buying TimeAs expected, the Fed cut rates for a third time this year (100bps total), reducing the range for the Federal Funds target to 4.25-4.50%. The Committee signaled a signific2024-12-04 · Bonds & RatesPause Ahead in Rates and QT?Insurance Cut in December is Likely…Then a Pause The jobs forecast from Linkup, a leading provider of labor demand data to the capital markets, indicates a marked slowing2024-11-21 · Bonds & RatesAround the Bond Market, November 2024The FOMC has eased 75 bps since September, but financial conditions have tightened about 25 bps since then due to the runup in real yields (the 10 year has backed up 80bp2024-11-13 · Bonds & RatesHelping Clients Understand the Move in RatesMost of our pieces are meant to be read by advisors, but sometimes there are topics that will resonate just as deeply with your clients. Here's an example of one that cou2024-11-08 · Bonds & RatesLong Term Rates Diverging From Fed PolicyAs expected, the Fed opted to cut rates by 25bps in November, taking the Federal Funds rate to a range of 4.50% to 4.75%. Marking now the second consecutive reduction in 2024-10-24 · Bonds & RatesRate Talk into the ElectionThe 10-year Treasury yield is up ~60 bps from the YTD lows seen just prior to the 50bp Fed cut on September 16. The widespread view is that the spike in rates is due to a2024-10-11 · Bonds & RatesEcon Data Not Bond-FriendlySeptember CPI Year-over-year, consumer prices rose 2.4%, a tenth of a percentage point more than expected but down from the 2.5% annual increase in August. 2.4% is the sm2024-09-27 · Bonds & RatesThe Fed’s RecalibrationPost Covid Inflation Source: Bianco. As of 9/24/24 In a recent op-ed, Jim Bianco argued that recessions and financial crises can create change across an economy. In 2020,2024-09-19 · Bonds & RatesFOMC: The First Cut is the Deepest?The debate between 25 or 50bps has been settled. It appears that markets strong-armed the Fed to front-load their first cut, where today they cut the funds rate by 50bps.2024-09-11 · Bonds & RatesAround the Bond Market, September 2024September 11th We take a moment at Aptus today to remember the lives lost on this tragic day 23 years ago. We are grateful for the men and women who make the enormous sac2024-08-23 · Bonds & RatesJackson Hole for Now, What About DC?Rate Cut Expectations All eyes are on Jay Powell this week in Jackson Hole as he lays out the FOMC plan for the upcoming rate cut cycle. As of now, the market is pricing 2024-08-09 · Bonds & RatesLarge Cut in September?We continue to believe the first Fed rate cut will be in September and this move will likely start a sequence of cuts. With that being said, we don’t see the case for a j2024-08-01 · Bonds & RatesJuly FOMC: No Change But September LikelyAs expected, the Fed kept the funds rate range unchanged at 5.25% – 5.50%, and while the tone of the statement was less hawkish, it didn’t overtly hint that a rate cut in2024-07-26 · Bonds & RatesFuture Treasury Yields: Look Beyond Headline MeasuresReal Rates… Was the Post-GFC Period the Anomaly? The current real rate (interest rate adjusted for inflation) sits around 2.93%, which is the highest level since 2007. Ho2024-07-11 · Bonds & RatesCloser to Rate CutsJune CPI Reaction In response to the CPI print, markets are now pricing in an 8.5% chance of a July cut, a 94.5% of a September cut, and an 85.6% chance of at least 2 cut2024-06-27 · Bonds & RatesBonds Still Facing HeadwindsHigher Neutral Rate Could Lead to Structurally Higher Interest Rates The graphic below shows pricing for forward contracts referencing the five-year interest rate in five2024-06-13 · Bonds & RatesMay Inflation + June FOMCWe see today’s print to be one of the first encouraging inflation prints for the Fed. The broader softness across components could point to a continuation of the slowing 2024-05-23 · Bonds & RatesLots to Consider for T-Bond BuyersTBAC Seeks New Funding Ideas The borrowing needs of the Treasury over the coming years are expected to drive an increase in issuance as the debt load compounds. The share2024-05-09 · Bonds & RatesMay 2024: Around the Bond MarketShort Term Treasuries Offer Higher Income and Stability vs. Long Duration As interest rates have moved higher, the front end of the curve is offering a combination of hig
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