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The Aptus Blog

Market notes, charts, investment concepts, and timely market updates, directly from our investment team.

2026-10-30 · Market UpdatesJD at ETF Oasis on The Dennis Rodman EffectOur Founder and CIO JD Gardner, CFA, CMT sat down with industry expert Lara Crigger at the ETF Oasis at Future Proof. JD made the case that options can work better than b2026-10-28 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q3 2026 Earnings PreviewEveryone knows my favorite time of the year is earnings season. For a few weeks, the market gets real data on what should actually drive stock prices (i.e., earnings and 2026-10-06 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, October 2026Higher Rates, Resilient Stocks +2.30% S&P 500 Q3 Return -0.35% S&P 500 September Return 31.7% ’26 Estimate S&P 500 Earnings Growth 5.30% 10-Yr Treasury Yield 2026-09-21 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Never Let a Crisis Go to WasteThis year, Fall is arriving alongside a debt conversation that never really goes away, and rates that have climbed to levels unseen in over a decade+. Which brings us to 2026-09-03 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, September 2026Market Recap – Earnings Growth Was the Star in August: August 2026 opened with real momentum and closed under a shadow of caution. The S&P 500 pushed to an all-time c2026-08-20 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q2 2026 Earnings RecapTLDR: Earnings were great. I considered using only a picture book to depict this past quarter’s earnings results because words simply can’t do it justice … and I’ve used 2026-08-13 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Leverage in the CloudTalking bearishly about datacenters is about as cool as Ray Dalio hitting up Ibiza for his 77th birthday. Nonetheless, I’ve been repeatedly asked about datacenters and th2026-08-07 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Chasing Warsh’s Reaction FunctionAll things considered, a flat month for the S&P in July feels pretty heroic given the headlines – a hedge fund implosion, historic Yen intervention, and a post-FOMC b2026-08-05 · Market UpdatesNo Leaks AllowedMobile Bay is protected by Fort Morgan on one side and Fort Gaines on the other. There’s history— “Damn the torpedoes! Full speed ahead!”—and an abundance of life at the 2026-08-05 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, August 2026Equity Recap – The Year Has Been a Great Lesson in Resilience: In July 2026, equity markets experienced a sharp internal rotation as investors pulled back from high-flyin2026-07-29 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q2 2026 Earnings PreviewFirst, it’s been a longstanding tradition for me to always send out Ronald Reagan’s Soldier’s Pledge on the 4th of July… I’m just a little (lotta) late this year. It’s a 2026-07-07 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, July 2026Equity Recap – The First Half of 2026 Has Been a Lesson in Resilience, But Not Stability: S&P 500 Has Best Quarter Since 2020, and NASDAQ Has Second Best Since 2001: 2026-06-10 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, June 2026Tech Gains and AI Optimism Defy Seasonal Slumps in May: The global financial markets put on a resilient performance, shunning the traditional “Sell in May and go away” se2026-05-19 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q1 2026 Earnings RecapThe #1 question that I’ve been getting: Why is the S&P 500 Rallying? As I’ve said, simply put, there’s a profitability boom. “Boom” in EPS beats: 85% of S&P 500 f2026-05-08 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: The SpaceX IPOIPO investors are high-fiving right now with 2026 shaping up to be a record year for public offerings. We’ve fielded a lot of questions in regard to the SpaceX IPO, so I 2026-05-04 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, May 2026Patience Remains an Investor’s Best Characteristic: The market experienced a powerful, broad-based rally throughout April 2026, marking one of the strongest monthly perfo2026-04-30 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q1 2026 EarningsI thought the old saying was: “Markets fall like an elevator, but rise like an escalator“, but I guess it’s the opposite as of late. In 2026, the market had its fastest r2026-04-17 · Market UpdatesGetting More ShotsOriginally a Content Hub post on Feb 4, 2026… Things are often made more complicated than they need to be. Take basketball as an example. Modern basketball analytics have2026-04-02 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, April 2026Quarter Market Recap – A Resilient Market: Domestic and International markets were not a “safe space” for the risk-averse investors in Q1 2026. The quarter was defined by2026-03-25 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q4 2025 Earnings RecapHere’s the big story in my mind: the S&P 500 EPS forecasts for 2026 and 2027 are climbing, but this optimistic trend might be a bit of a “smoke screen.” Most of those2026-03-16 · Market UpdatesAptus Musing: The Importance of StructureWhen many things are happening in the world, like right now, remember to keep things in perspective: 1) We don’t know what we don’t know – that’s OK, and 2) The importanc2026-03-05 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Citrini!!!I’ll cover 2 topics in this Musing: 1) Iran, and 2) Citrini. I’ve been asked about the Citrini report several times over the past few days, so I wanted to address those q2026-03-03 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, March 2026Market Recap → A Theme of Disintermediation: Headline returns for the index remained somewhat muted during February; however, underneath the hood from a single stock stan2026-02-23 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: The Market Will Continue to Have a Troll TollLast week was supposed to be a quiet, short week; it was anything but. Cue Friday, February 20th: 1) SCOTUS Tariff decision (deemed illegal), 2) Core PCE (higher than exp2026-02-18 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Warsh-ing Your Hands of Jerome PowellThis musing is basically a 2:1 special. In the opening monologue, let’s talk about what’s going on underneath the hood of the market, then we’ll get to the Kevin Warsh no2026-02-04 · Market UpdatesSimple FormulasThings are often made more complicated than they need to be. Take basketball as an example. Modern basketball analytics have created a whole new language within the sport2026-02-03 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, February 2026Market Recap → A Month of Headline Digestion: The theme of January is perhaps best captured in how the black swan events that cropped up— Venezuela, Japan, Greenland—were2026-01-23 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q4 2025 Earnings PreviewThe pace of change these days, whether it’s technology or geopolitics, is absolutely stunning: Maduro, Greenland, Venezuela, Lisa Cook, Powell, etc. The factors, the stoc2026-01-07 · Market UpdatesDriving Higher CAGRs“CAGR” – we say that a lot, and for good reason. It stands for Compounded Annual Growth Rate. It’s how your wealth grows. Higher CAGR = Higher terminal wealth. Aptus’ foc2026-01-05 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, January 2026Market Recap December 2025: U.S. and global equities posted solid full-year gains in 2025, but the ride was much choppier than the headline returns suggest, with multiple2025-12-26 · Market UpdatesTimeWhen I was a kid, I assumed tomorrow would look like today. Mom, Dad, and my brothers all together under one roof. Sure, I thought about the future, but I just kinda thou2025-12-17 · Market UpdatesAptus Market Outlook: Be an American PsychoAs one of the most searing dissections of 1980s yuppie culture, American Psycho has become a movie with a cult following, as it depicts Patrick Bateman’s journey as a par2025-12-03 · Market UpdatesTimeWhen I was a kid, I assumed tomorrow would look like today. Mom, Dad, and my brothers all together under one roof. Sure, I thought about the future, but I just kinda thou2025-12-02 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, December 2025Market Recap November 2025: November wrapped up with a choppy, but ultimately modest month for U.S. equities, as a late-month rally helped the S&P 500 claw back from 2025-11-28 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q3 2025 Earnings ReviewHappy Thanksgiving! At the Wagner household, Arlo Guthrie’s 1967 20′ masterpiece, Alice’s Restaurant, is viewed as a Thanksgiving fan favorite, likely because I’m the onl2025-11-14 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Furloughing the TariffsBye weeks are huge. The Cincinnati Bengals had a bye week this past weekend; their defense needed it, our tailgate needed it, and I needed it. But, one of the biggest que2025-11-04 · Market UpdatesWhere Do You Buy Your Cheerios?Top three cereals of all time, in no order: Feel free to disagree, but those are my GOATs when it comes to cereal. What’s not in my top three? Cheerios. While not my favo2025-11-03 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, November 2025Market Recap October 2025: The seasonals did not seasonal, as a historically known weak month, had strong returns for risk assets. In October 2025, the U.S. stock market 2025-10-16 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q3 2025 Earnings PreviewWith earnings season beginning this morning, I decided to write our Q3 2025 Earnings Preview on a flight to Omaha. And while heading to this special investment city, it’s2025-10-09 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Leave the Government Shutdown Out of Your PortfolioBefore I start, I’ve continued to receive a lot of questions regarding the U.S. v. International debate. One of the main rules of Wall Street is that attitude follows per2025-10-03 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, October 2025Market Recap September 2025 – Life Certainly Looks Like Easy Street in the Equity Markets: It’s always easier when the markets are going up. Equities have continued to pr2025-09-05 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Is there Staying Power in Stablecoins?We’re going to do a new style of the Aptus Musings today; it’s going to be a bit more educational. I had a conversation a few weeks ago with a friend and realized that I 2025-09-02 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, September 2025Market Recap – August 2025: The market continued its monthly gain streak, as August had every single week during the month have a positive return. The market has been in 2025-08-21 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q2 2025 Earnings ReviewThe big debate in the final weeks of Summer is whether the delayed bite of the Administration’s trade and tariff policy will matter more for financial markets than the of2025-08-05 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, August 2025Market Recap – July 2025: July was a great month for risk assets. Historically speaking, when July is a good performance month, it tends to be a strong signal for the rem2025-08-04 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: A Musing of MusingsI’m a big believer that in this market, whatever narrative you go looking for, you’ll find it. It’s very rare to find data that is always one-sided and not conflicting. A2025-08-04 · Market UpdatesArming Yourself Against Dollar DebasementThis month’s post is designed to elaborate on our general thinking, but more specifically, on the release of our Purchasing Power Protection Sleeve (‘PPP’), which include2025-07-11 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q2 2025 Earnings PreviewPersonally, I feel like tariffs have already started to take a back seat to: 1) Q2 2025 S&P 500 Earnings (i.e., resiliency of corporate America), and 2) Labor Markets2025-07-07 · Market UpdatesIllusion of ControlRisk tolerance is used (a lot) in the wealth management space, and I’m not sure anybody thinks about what they are saying at this point. Here’s the gist of what is usuall2025-07-01 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, July 2025Market Recap – June 2025: Risk assets were King of the Mountain during June and Q2, as a reversal in sentiment drove stocks higher, bringing the majority of major asset c2025-06-03 · Market UpdatesDon’t Hold the BagThere’s noise… so much noise. The headlines, data, and stuff that just don’t matter bombard investors. It’s our own dang fault. The noise only exists because there’s dema2025-06-02 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, June 2025Market Recap – May 2025: To some, it may feel miraculous that the S&P 500 is now positive on the year – which was a new development during the month. March and April 2025-05-30 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q1 2025 Earnings RecapI hope that everyone had a great Memorial Day Weekend! We’ll start with two newsworthy pieces: 1. Now that the “One, Big Beautiful Bill” has passed the House and is on it2025-05-14 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: The Great International DebateFirst, let’s touch base on Monday’s news: the US and China will temporarily lower tariffs on each other’s products in a move to cool trade tensions and give the world’s t2025-05-05 · Market UpdatesDurability in Divergence = SuccessNo matter your time horizon, higher ending values of an investment portfolio are a good thing. That’s usually the goal. Invested wealth grows through time. It’s our job t2025-05-05 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, May 2025Market Recap – April 2025: The S&P 500 rallied to a one-month high in the last week of the quarter, rising nine straight trading days and recouped virtually all of th2025-04-23 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q1 2025 Earnings PreviewI’ve had a lot of inbound calls regarding the markets over the past few weeks, so I’d like to start with some historical perspective. As our quarterly newsletter stated, 2025-04-04 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Perspective in a Noisy WorldAs many of you know, my word for Q1 and Q2 is “Perspective“. Macro news, like what we are seeing with tariffs, can seem and feel overwhelming, but just remember, the mark2025-04-03 · Market UpdatesOwn the Risk, Hedge the TailThe volume of uncertainty has been turned up. The S&P 500 closed the quarter -4.28% after dropping 10% from the highs in mid-February. As Dave points out in our Q1 202025-04-03 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, April 2025Market Recap – March 2025: The first quarter delivered a classic third-year bull market correction, falling 10% from its highs before rebounding and finishing only –4.28%
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