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The Aptus Blog

Market notes, charts, investment concepts, and timely market updates, directly from our investment team.

2023-12-04 · Market UpdatesMagnificent SevenMany came into 2023 expecting a recession, and accordingly, bearish on equities. While the economic data has been much better than expected (particularly employment), it 2023-11-15 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q3 ’23 Earnings Season ReviewI want to start here: “Given that the stock market tends to go up more than down (60-70% of the time), odds are the current trading range is a prelude to another advance.2023-11-07 · Market UpdatesKeeping Client Eyes On the FutureIn our recent piece Enhancing Your (Portfolio) Engine, we walked through our logic: Own more stocks, in a risk-neutral way Embrace beta to capture the ups Use volatility 2023-11-02 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, November 2023October ’23 Market Recap: In a part of the year, in which the market tends to witness some seasonal weakness, the S&P notched its first negative three-month performan2023-10-25 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q3 2023 Earnings PreviewCatching up This past weekend, Aptus held our 4th annual Uncle Rico 2v2 Basketball tournament. As many of y’all know, we have a slew of former college and professional ba2023-10-09 · Market UpdatesEnhancing Your Engine (Portfolio Version)We will build on this note in weeks to come. As you’ve probably heard us say, we think it makes sense to equip portfolios with a stronger engine (stocks), using better br2023-10-05 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, October 2023September ’23 Market Recap: As the weakest seasonal period for equities historically, September is doing what September does. The S&P 500 was down -4.8%. This was a s2023-09-27 · Market UpdatesMeet the Team : Joseph SykoraYou might have seen our Team Page with our full team lineup, showing us in the office setting, with the usual bios about backgrounds and roles. We wanted to show you who 2023-09-12 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Come MondayThe world lost a great icon the other day; Jimmy Buffett. And in honor of the man, the myth, and the legend himself, this Musing is dedicated to him. For those that don’t2023-09-06 · Market UpdatesHelping Clients Reach the Finish LineWe talk constantly about the two main risks we help advisors defend against: Drawdown: sharp drops that interrupt compounding and trigger client fear Longevity: insuffici2023-09-05 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, September 2023August ‘23 Market Recap: The S&P 500 reversed course in August, falling 1.6% after jumping 10% in June-July on a total return basis. Higher rates, more positioning ri2023-08-25 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Why Rates Haven’t Had a Material ImpactWe’ve been fielding a few questions as to why higher rates have seemingly had no collateral damage on the economy except for a few banking failures back in March. Let’s h2023-08-15 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q2 2023 Earnings RecapLast week, President Biden signed an executive order limiting US investments in China for advanced semiconductors, quantum computing, and Artificial Intelligence (AI) sys2023-08-08 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Why Has the Market Been Resilient?I understand that a lot of y’all have upcoming client meetings, so I wanted to take more of a high-level approach to this Musing, instead of focusing on a single subject.2023-08-02 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, August 2023July ‘23 Market Recap: The S&P 500 gained 3.2% in July on a total return basis, the fifth month of gains and the ninth straight positive July. Less favorable seasonal2023-07-20 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q2 2023 Earnings PreviewBefore we dive in, if anyone needs any of our quarterly newsletters, presentations, updates, etc., feel free to reach out. Also, if anyone would like a quarterly market u2023-07-12 · Market UpdatesWill June CPI Be the Low?More Progress in June Inflation Numbers: → Headline CPI +0.2% M/M (vs +0.3% expected, +0.1% prior) → Core CPI +0.2% M/M (vs +0.3% expected, +0.4% prior) It was exactly on2023-07-06 · Market UpdatesRevisiting the Volatility TaxThe Volatility Tax Almost 2 years ago to the day, we published this piece: Reducing the Volatility Tax. We thought revisiting this concept was timely given the last 18 mo2023-07-03 · Market UpdatesQ2 2023 Recap and Chart Book(Click above for the full update) This is our biggie each quarter, pages of charts and the context to go with them. As always, we think the windshield view is far more re2023-06-30 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, July 2023June ‘23 Market Recap: The banking fears of Q1 faded into an all-out Artificial Intelligence (“AI”) FOMO trade in Q2, as the S&P 500 returned 8.74%. Outside of AI, th2023-06-27 · Market UpdatesMeet the Team : Brett WickmannYou might have seen our Team Page with our full team lineup, showing us in the office setting, with the usual bios about backgrounds and roles. We wanted to show you who 2023-06-15 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Economic CyclesIn case you missed it – JL put something out on CPI on Tuesday. If you want any commentary on the Fed/FOMC, just reach out and we can discuss today’s hawkish “skip”, whic2023-06-05 · Market UpdatesA Process to Match the GameStroke Play or Match Play For any non-golfers out there, match play is hole-by-hole scoring. Meaning, you play to win each hole individually. Your score from the prior ho2023-06-05 · Market UpdatesMeet the Team : John GoldsberryYou might have seen our Team Page with our full team lineup, showing us in the office setting, with the usual bios about backgrounds and roles. We wanted to show you who 2023-06-05 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, June 2023May ‘23 Market Recap: The S&P 500 gained 0.4% in May and traded in a 100pt range (4056 and 4169), one of the most narrow monthly ranges (11th percentile) in history s2023-05-31 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: The Debt Ceiling ResolutionWith the NBA finals beginning, let’s heed some wisdom from the NBA G.O.A.T., Michael Jordan, who once said that the ceiling is the roof. Unfortunately, that wisdom proved2023-05-22 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q1 2023 Earnings RecapI broke a 2 year tradition: I was unable to get a musing out on George Strait’s birthday (D.O.B: 5/18/1952). He turned everyone’s favorite golf score, 71 – also the score2023-05-03 · Market UpdatesDiversifiers vs. HedgesI’m starting with this chart because it matters: Source: TS Lombard as of March 2023 What you are looking at is the rolling 10-year correlation between stocks and bonds. 2023-05-01 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, May 2023April ‘23 Market Recap: Despite elevated macro and micro uncertainty, the S&P 500 rallied 1.5% in April. Keeping with positive correlation, fixed income continues to 2023-04-25 · Market UpdatesIs Gold Worth Owning?The recent performance of gold has caught investor attention. Following the banking sector stress, and a near-record drop in the US 2-year Treasury yield, markets have ha2023-04-19 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q1 2023 Earnings PreviewOn the radio last week, I heard a classic John Prine song that had the following (slightly tweaked) lyric: “a clown puts his makeup on upside down, so even when he smiles2023-04-10 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: De-Dollarization?Alright, let’s hit a polarizing topic because I’ve been asked this question numerous times over the last week or so – the currency debate. It’s no secret that the dominan2023-04-04 · Market UpdatesDecision InputsDecisions are easier to make if conviction of outcome is high, and/or the tradeoff profile is attractive enough. Even if (you think) you know the outcome of an event, if 2023-04-04 · Market UpdatesQ1 2023 Recap and Chart Book(Click above for the full update) This is our biggie each quarter, pages of charts and the context to go with them. As always, we think the windshield view is far more re2023-04-04 · Market UpdatesSurprise! OPEC is Still in ChargeAs recently as last month, OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) and its representatives suggested that they had no intention of cutting crude oil producti2023-04-03 · Market UpdatesMeet the Team : James BaiYou might have seen our Team Page with our full team lineup, showing us in the office setting, with the usual bios about backgrounds and roles. We wanted to show you who 2023-04-03 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, April 2023March ‘23 Market Recap; The S&P 500 ignored the fallout from banking woes and recorded a surprising +3.7% gain last month, leaving the index in positive territory for2023-03-23 · Market UpdatesGet to Know the Aptus TeamA partner firm is only as good as its people, and we think ours are great both in and out of the office. Hope you’ll enjoy a short video and Q&A from a few of us, sta2023-03-20 · Market UpdatesFDIC vs SIPC: What Happens When Financial Institutions Fail?Over the past week, headlines have been dominated by news of Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse along with the failures of Silvergate Bank and Signature Bank of NY. The FDIC 2023-03-10 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Banking on DepositsI hope that y’all have not had PTSD 2.0 of the GFC over the last few days. The KBW Regional Banking Index (KRE) is having its worst week since … October 2008. We had to b2023-03-07 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Equity Risk Premium (ERP)I’ve fielded a few questions regarding Mike Wilson’s (of Morgan Stanley) recent market commentary. Outside of corporate profitability, i.e., margins driving down future e2023-03-07 · Market UpdatesIt’s the Tails That Worry UsThis month’s note is a carryover from last month’s, where we highlighted the rise of the “set it and forget it” portfolio over the last couple of decades, and the potenti2023-03-07 · Market UpdatesMeet the Team : Clay CalhounYou might have seen our Team Page with our full team lineup, showing us in the office setting, with the usual bios about backgrounds and roles. We wanted to show you who 2023-03-01 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, March 2023February ‘23 Market Recap: The January rally suddenly looks distant as equities closed lower for the month, finishing down 5.0% from their early February peak. This has b2023-02-23 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Debt Ceiling Part DeuxI’m going to cut to the chase here – I’ve been reading a lot on the debt crisis here recently, especially after the Congressional Budget Office (“CBO”) released its lates2023-02-14 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q4 2022 Earnings Season RecapQ4 ’22 Earnings Season Given current levels of Nominal GDP (+7.3% YoY) & Real GDP (+2.1% YoY), it appears that a recession has been delayed, but the market has begun 2023-02-10 · Market UpdatesMeet the Team : Matt McGowanYou might have seen our Team Page with our full team lineup, showing us in the office setting, with the usual bios about backgrounds and roles. We wanted to show you who 2023-02-06 · Market UpdatesRethinking AllocationThink Different – Be Different Day in and day out, our time is spent in the trenches with financial advisors and their end clients. Some are new relationships; some we’ve2023-02-02 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, February 2023January ‘23 Market Recap: The “January Effect” was in full order this past month. The worst performing sectors in 2022 led last month: Consumer Discretionary (+15%) and C2023-01-24 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q4 2022 Earnings PreviewIt’s showtime baby! As many of y’all are aware, Q4 earnings season tends to be a bit longer than the others, as it takes a little while longer for companies to close the 2023-01-23 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: The Debt CeilingUnfortunately, we are about to talk politics – let’s rip the band aid off and dive in. The U.S. just hit its debt limit. Taking a Trip Down Memory Lane Essentially, the p2023-01-23 · Market UpdatesQ4 2022: American PsychoAs one of the most searing dissections of 1980s yuppie culture, American Psycho has become a movie with a cult following, as it depicts Patrick Bateman’s journey of a par2023-01-18 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: The Beginning of ’23Stocks have rallied to start 2023 and the biggest reason for the early gains is that investors are interpreting further declines in inflation, slowing economic growth, an2023-01-13 · Market UpdatesQ4 Recap and Chart BookThis is our biggie each quarter, pages of charts and the context to go with them. As always, we think the windshield view is far more relevant than the rearview. But it’s2023-01-09 · Market UpdatesFixed Income: 2022 Review + 2023 Preview2022: Unprecedented in Modern Market History For only the third year since 1926, both US stocks and bonds lost money (the other two occurrences were … 1931 and 1969. The 2023-01-04 · Market UpdatesYield MattersMarkets Have Changed Discounting is the mathematical practice of estimating what a cash flow in the future is worth TODAY. Higher rates used in discounting lead to lower 2023-01-03 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, January 2023December 2022 Market Recap: There was no “Santa Claus” rally in December – more of a “Santa Snooze” – as the market traded effectively sideways the last 2 weeks to finish2022-12-27 · Market UpdatesThe Yield Curve and Its ImpactThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has the ability to set interest rates through the Fed Funds rate – the overnight lending rate among US banks. Banks are required 2022-12-19 · Market Updates2023 Market Outlook: “A Market in Constant Sorrow”“O Muse!, Sing in me, and through me, tell the story, Of that skilled investor, in all ways of contending, An asset allocation, searching for alpha years on end…” An Invo2022-12-19 · Market UpdatesExecutive Summary: 2023 Aptus Capital Market OutlookThe Necessity to Focus on What Matters – One of the most influential things that we’ve all learned is that short-term events rarely matter. In the moment, they will feel

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