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The Aptus Blog

Market notes, charts, investment concepts, and timely market updates, directly from our investment team.

2022-03-01 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, March 2022The market, measured by the S&P 500, officially entered a “correction” phase, as investors continue to disseminate the latest news on the Russia/Ukraine front. Market2022-02-28 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: What Could Go Right for the MarketUpdate on Russia/Ukraine Asset Allocation Implications: How might the current geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine impact a client’s asset allocation? Yes; the2022-02-28 · Market UpdatesRussia/Ukraine: New Wrinkle in Already Tight Oil MarketAs this is being written, WTI crude oil trades at $96.13/bbl (per barrel); the last time oil closed that high was 2014. Of course, given recent events and the inherent vo2022-02-22 · Market UpdatesEarnings Recap: Q4 2021The culmination of the NFL season tends to coincide with another ending – Q4 earnings season, as 82% of the S&P 500 constituents have now reported. Fourth-quarter ear2022-02-21 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Crimea RiverRisk is the game of world conquest, and Vladimir Putin is currently Player 1, as Russia has been on an epic struggle for Ukraine domination ever since they voted overwhel2022-02-15 · Market UpdatesHot Inflation & Hawkish FedThe inflation print was hotter than expected and surprised to the upside AGAIN. The data should reinforce the Fed’s need to begin raising rates next month to combat broad2022-02-08 · Market UpdatesProtect and Participate“Risk isn’t what you think is going to happen, it’s what hurts if it does happen.” David Dredge, Convex Strategies Reading and listening to David Dredge has been a joy; i2022-02-07 · Market UpdatesJobs Update Feb 22NFP February 4th, 2022 We are always in tune with the job data that comes across our screens the first Friday of each month, but we don’t typically dedicate a post to res2022-02-02 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, February 2022Developments over the Past Month: Monthly Recap: We’ve seen big moves in equities to start the year. This has been the worst January for the S&P 500 since 2009 while 2022-01-28 · Market UpdatesIs Value Trading at a Value?The recent market volatility has been keeping us busy, or maybe the fact that I’m still celebrating a Cincinnati Bengals playoff victory against the first-seeded Tennesse2022-01-27 · Market UpdatesFederal Open Market Committee Meeting – January 2022Source: BofA, Data as of 1/27/01 As expected, the Fed kept rates in the 0.00-0.25% range during the January meeting. Chairman Powell pointed to a high likelihood of a rat2022-01-24 · Market UpdatesEquity Sleeve 2021 ReportThe Road Goes on Forever, But the Party Never Ends? Cathie was an Investor at the only Growth shop in town, She had a reputation as a girl that’s investments only go down2022-01-21 · Market UpdatesAsset Style Review Part 2: Small vs. LargeLast week, we covered the age old question of “Domestic vs. International”. Let’s make this a bit more intimate with a more recently debated topic, given the rally in cyc2022-01-20 · Market UpdatesPathway for The FedSource: Bloomberg LP. As of 1/19/22. Markets have started off on a rough note to begin 2022. The fear of a reduction in market accommodation as the Fed pulls support and 2022-01-19 · Market UpdatesQ4 Recap and Chart BookThis is our biggie each quarter, 21 pages of charts and the context to go with them. As always, we think the windshield view is far more relevant than the rearview. But i2022-01-14 · Market UpdatesCPI Update Jan 2022It’s been a big week for Chairman Powell as the Senate held his reconfirmation hearing on Tuesday and this morning (Wednesday) brought the release of the final inflation 2022-01-06 · Market UpdatesAnother Hawkish PivotWe’ve seen a notable switch in tone of Chairman Powell and many of the other Fed officials over the last couple meetings as they’ve tilted their tone to sound more hawkis2022-01-05 · Market UpdatesA Note of ThanksIf you’re looking for a portfolio recap or a market forecast, this ain’t the note to read. My heart is overflowing with gratitude – for family, team, relationships, and t2022-01-05 · Market UpdatesAsset Style Review Part 1: Domestic vs. InternationalOver the next few weeks, I’m going to put out a series of analysis on 2021, hitting some of the bigger relative opportunity sets within the equity market: Week 1: Domesti2022-01-04 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, January 2022Developments over the Past Month: Monthly Recap: Do you believe in Santa Claus? The market obviously did, as December, which tends to be a seasonally strong month, saw th2021-12-22 · Market UpdatesIt’s Time to Curb Your Enthusiasm in 2022The team used its collective vision to plot a course for 2022, and our own Dave Wagner, CFA gave it a fun theme as only he can do. The piece you’ll see below tackles the 2021-12-17 · Market UpdatesFOMC December 2021 – Hawkish, but not Too HawkishFed Doubles Taper to $30M a month, Signals Three 2022 Hikes in Inflation Pivot Source: Bloomberg LP. As of 12.15.21 As of 12.15.21 What Changed? The ’22 dots on the FOMC 2021-12-03 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, December 2021Developments over the Past Month Monthly Recap: November tends to be a seasonally strong month but turned out to be much more volatile than expected, especially during th2021-12-02 · Market UpdatesToday’s Market, and Staying InvestedHappy December! Historically, this part of the year tends to see minimal volatility, but, as we already know, 2020 and 2021 continue to be the exception – so why would th2021-11-23 · Market UpdatesEarnings Recap: Q3 2021So far, the “important” part of earnings season is essentially over, and the results are better-than-expected. Companies have cited margin issues and supply chain disrupt2021-11-22 · Market UpdatesInflation is Becoming a REAL Political ProblemInflation has been a major headline the last 18 months as market participants digested the unprecedented government response to the pandemic (i.e., monetary and fiscal po2021-11-22 · Market UpdatesPowell is Renominated!This morning, President Biden renominated the current Fed Chairman, Jay Powell, for another 4-year term. Lael Brainard, who was also in the running, will become the next 2021-11-08 · Market UpdatesWhat’s Happening with Oil?With OPEC in the news and many countries clamoring for more oil (including President Biden), we figured an update was due…please reach out to the author at jsykora@apt.us2021-11-04 · Market UpdatesSteady Wins the RaceBack to the Basics Sometimes, the most powerful illustration of a concept is simple math… Let’s imagine having four portfolios to choose from over the next five years. Ea2021-11-02 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, November 2021Developments over the Past Month: Monthly Recap: The path of least resistance has been higher in recent weeks, but there are a lot of moving pieces for the market to deal2021-10-29 · Market UpdatesPresident Biden, We NEED an Answer…The yield curve had a massive flattening this week. The short end of curve rose sharply while the long end of the curve declined by nearly the same amount. Simply put, th2021-10-25 · Market UpdatesWill He Stay or Will He Go?Fed Chairman Powell’s four-year term ends on February 5th, 2022. Historically, appointments (by the President) are typically made in October or early November for upcomin2021-10-22 · Market UpdatesWhat is Stagflation?Stagflation has been a buzzword here lately – side note, I think that buzzwords are for the birds, much like this topic. I believe that today’s façade of stagflation will2021-10-20 · Market UpdatesQ3 Recap and Chart Book, Ted Lasso VersionWho doesn’t want to dig into 30 pages of charts amidst quotes from everyone’s favorite futbol coach?! Market Volatility: “Taking on a challenge is a lot like riding a hor2021-10-15 · Market UpdatesEarnings Preview: Q3 2021It’s the most wonderful time of the year – Q3 2021 earnings kick off week. We believe that it’s a make-or-break quarter with all eyes on margins and supply chains and for2021-10-14 · Market UpdatesThe Real Purpose of Risk Mitigation“I argue that cost-effective risk mitigation, when done well, doesn’t just take you out of risk, but actually allows you to take on more risk.” Mark Spitznagel We’d tweak2021-10-06 · Market UpdatesWhat Does It Mean to “Own Volatility”?You’ve probably heard us say we like to “own” volatility. Or that we use “volatility an asset class”. What do we mean by that? First, let’s think about what a client is t2021-10-05 · Market UpdatesA Winner for Advisors: More Equity SleevesAs we ramped up our portfolio consulting services a few years back, we noticed the opportunity advisors had if they were able to integrate individual securities into port2021-10-05 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, October 2021Developments over the Past Month: Recap: After successfully testing it’s 50-day moving average nine times so far in 2021, the S&P 500 finally broke below this thresho2021-09-24 · Market UpdatesFOMC Update Sept 2021Quick Take The most important things that we learned yesterday from the FOMC statement, forecasts, dots, and press conference are 1) tapering will most likely start in No2021-09-15 · Market UpdatesInflation Takeaways: PPI/CPIAugust PPI and CPI and Fed Survey Update… QE Taper Coming late ‘21 Boy did we get the tale of two reports from the August inflation data. The PPI report was modestly high2021-09-08 · Market UpdatesBuilt for StormsWe try to be consistent with these notes for transparency regarding the assets we’ve been trusted with. Some of the notes are better than others. I’m not claiming this no2021-09-07 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, September 2021Developments over the Past Month: Apparently, stocks just go up. Because that’s what they did in August, as it was superlative city again, given that the market has now s2021-08-26 · Market UpdatesJackson Hole: To Taper or Not?Time to Taper? With Caution…Slow and Steady. We all saw the news last Friday that the much anticipated Jackson Hole Central Bank Conference will now be a virtual event. W2021-08-12 · Market UpdatesJuly CPI: Our TakeThe U.S. CPI rose +0.5% m/m and 5.4% y/y in July. The core (ex food & energy) CPI rose +0.3% m/m and 4.3% y/y. While these numbers are more moderate vs. recent months2021-08-02 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, August 2021Developments over the Past Month: Stocks continue to see the path of least resistance being up. For the sixth time this year, the S&P 500 bounced off its 50-day movin2021-08-02 · Market UpdatesWhy International?Let’s Party Like it is 1999! No investor ever wants to participate in a “Lost Decade” – domestic U.S. stocks encountered this problem in the 2000s, international caught i2021-07-28 · Market UpdatesCan’t Tell The Fed Nothin’Performance During Taper Tantrums: I would consider the cliché idiom, “nothing is certain except death and taxes” to be wrong. Why? Because I would personally add the fol2021-07-22 · Market UpdatesDelta Variant & Flattening Yield CurveIs the risk off move just a pause in the market after an incredible two quarters to start 2021, or something sinister brewing under the surface? The equity market’s react2021-07-16 · Market UpdatesQ2 Recap and Chart BookThe Backdrop for 2H 2021: The Good: Better Economic Data – Economic data, which lags the stock market, hit rock-bottom last year, but we believe signs of a recovery have 2021-07-07 · Market UpdatesReducing the Volatility TaxInvestment Objective We work with the lifeblood of financial services. With advisors serving the families that have worked hard to accumulate assets and need those assets2021-07-02 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, July 2021Developments over the Past Month: Stocks continue to chop between the 4050 – 4300 SPX range that they have been trapped in since mid-April – though, it ended the month on2021-06-02 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, June 2021Developments over the Past Month: Thus far, 2021 has continued the inflation theme in the market. Value continues to outpace growth, small caps have performed well, and b2021-06-02 · Market UpdatesRenting vs. OwningFear of Missing Out This market is a FOMO generating machine. From our vantage point, there is more delusion around returns and disregard for risk than we ever thought po2021-05-28 · Market UpdatesSnap Ya Fingers! Do Ya Step! You Can Lose It All by Yo’ Self!Going into this year, a theme for our clients was that “the path of least resistance is up, but we could encounter some type of volatility”. This is exactly what we have 2021-05-26 · Market UpdatesThe Allure of Direct Indexing for ClientsThe concept of Direct Indexing is pretty much as it sounds. Instead of accessing an index through an ETF or a mutual fund – you directly own the underlying securities. Th2021-05-20 · Market UpdatesQ1 Earnings RecapAs of May 14th, 91% of the S&P 500 have reported earnings (440 companies). The first quarter of 2021 saw S&P 500 earnings at $48.21, besting Wall Street expectati2021-05-14 · Market UpdatesIt’s Hard Out Here for a Bond InvestorThe Q1 Scorecard Source: Bloomberg (As of 3/31/21) TLT = iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF ($12bn AUM); AGG = iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF ($87bn AUM); LQD = iSh2021-05-04 · Market UpdatesTeam Over PlayersAptus has six team members that are former collegiate basketball players and two that went on to play professionally. That is almost 50% of our roster. This shared backgr2021-05-04 · Market UpdatesThe Proposed Tax Policy ChangesWho is John Galt? President Biden won the electoral college by 74 votes, but he won the “swing states” by only just 65K votes. So, even though it may not look like it on

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