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The Aptus Blog

Market notes, charts, investment concepts, and timely market updates, directly from our investment team.

2022-11-25 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, November 25Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Dave: As is us2022-11-22 · Bonds & RatesA Rant on the Yield Curve InversionWhere Does the Terminal Rate Need to Go? Source: Bloomberg. As of 11/18/22. It’s pretty clear the pace of rate hikes will slow down soon, although we believe we are far f2022-11-18 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, November 18Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: JL: Year-over-2022-11-16 · Market UpdatesAptus Musing: Season RecapThe Cincinnati Bengals had a BYE this week, so I thought that I would do some reflecting not only on their first ten games, but over my last two musings – earnings and th2022-11-15 · Market UpdatesAptus Musing: Can That CPI Reaction Stick?I’ve been asked what we thought about the magnitude and sustainability of last week’s market reaction to Thursday’s CPI print. We love putting things into context and las2022-11-11 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, November 11Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: JL: stock pric2022-11-10 · Bonds & RatesA Good Day for The FedYear-over-year, CPI rose 7.7%, down from the 8.2% pace reported the month prior and the fourth consecutive month of cooling price pressures, albeit still near a four-deca2022-11-09 · Bonds & RatesWhat Could Stop the Fed?Newton’s First Law of Motion states that an object in motion tends to stay in motion unless an external force acts upon it. The Fed is in motion (hiking rates/QT) and unt2022-11-04 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, November 4Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: John Luke: Bon2022-11-03 · Market UpdatesIs It Worth Locking in 4%?4% yields look attractive. Are they? Rate Environment We are writing this on 11/2/2022 as markets await the 1pm CST FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) statement followe2022-11-02 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, November 2022October 2022 Market Recap: The market ended the month +8.1% in October, as Q3 earnings season looks to be a complete redux of Q2 earnings season. There has been earnings 2022-10-31 · Bonds & RatesThoughts on Interest RatesWe’ve had a number of questions regarding peak interest rates. Interest rates have of course been a hot topic in 2022… the 4th worst year for government bonds since 1721 2022-10-28 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, October 28Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and how they help fill the puzzle of evidence: John Luke: Fastest mon2022-10-25 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: 2022 Midterm ElectionsIn some ways, the midterm elections have been demoted in importance as investors have been concentrating on Federal Reserve policy. It has been well-documented how market2022-10-24 · Bonds & Rates10-Year Treasuries Hit 15-Year HighTreasury yields are once again higher this morning with the 10-year Treasury hitting its highest yield in 15 years. It’s currently at 4.32% which matches yields last visi2022-10-21 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, October 21Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and how they help fill the puzzle of evidence: John Luke: “Unpreceden2022-10-17 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q3 2022 Earnings PreviewWhen someone says, “It’s football season”, Kentuckians, in their own dialect, instantaneously translate that to “Keeneland is about to open”. Even more exciting this year2022-10-14 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, October 14Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and how they help fill the puzzle of evidence: John Luke: Looking out2022-10-13 · Bonds & RatesSeptember CPI … Another Hot OneAnother hot print with Core CPI hitting a new cycle high of 6.6% y/y, numbers summarized here: CPI m/m: +0.4% CPI y/y: +8.2% (vs +8.1% exp) Core m/m: +0.6% (vs +0.4% exp)2022-10-12 · Bonds & RatesInterest Is The Barometer of TrustI’ve been reading Edward Chancellors book The Price of Time over the last couple weeks. It’s a bit dense but found it thoroughly interesting and informative. Basically th2022-10-10 · Market UpdatesQ3 2022: A Market in Constant Sorrow“O Muse!, Sing in me, and through me, tell the story, Of that skilled investor, in all ways of contending, An asset allocation, searching for alpha years on end…” -Invoca2022-10-07 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, October 7Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and how they help fill the puzzle of evidence: JD: We’re going throug2022-10-05 · Market UpdatesEverything is a DCFWe are three quarters through 2022 and it’s been a tough year. We’ve weathered this market turmoil, but I’m fully aware being down ‘less’ is not something most investors 2022-10-05 · Market UpdatesQ3 Recap and Chart BookThis is our biggie each quarter, pages of charts and the context to go with them. As always, we think the windshield view is far more relevant than the rearview. But it’s2022-10-04 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, October 2022Developments Over the Past Month Can you Hear the Fed Now? September 2022 Market Recap: At the end of September, the Fed removed any remaining doubt about its commitment 2022-10-03 · Market UpdatesAssessing the DownsideWhen we think about narratives surrounding slowing economic growth, our job as investors is to translate narrative into number. In other words, if the Federal Reserve con2022-09-30 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, September 30Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and how they help fill the puzzle of evidence: John Luke: Even the mo2022-09-28 · Bonds & RatesPeak Inflation ≠ Peak YieldsAs interest rates continue their hockey stick move higher, we looked back to history for guidance on when we might see peak rates. We discovered a valuable nugget of info2022-09-26 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Volatility Breeds VolatilityMany of y’all have heard my D + G spiel regarding the S&P 500’s P/E compressing from 21.5x (Dec ’21) to 16x currently, all while the risk premium has actually tighten2022-09-23 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, September 23Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and how they help fill the puzzle of evidence: John Luke: This year a2022-09-22 · Market UpdatesFOMC September 2022: Another Big HikeAs expected, the Federal Reserve opted to raise rates 75bps, taking the target range to 3.00% to 3.25%, with a total of 300bps in policy adjustments since March…the faste2022-09-19 · Market UpdatesWhy Own International?Why do we own international stocks? This is one of the most common questions we receive from advisors. Who can blame them? We are nearly 15 years into a regime in which U2022-09-16 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, September 16Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and how they help fill the puzzle of evidence: John Luke: Inflation w2022-09-14 · Bonds & RatesPrepare for More TighteningAnother Hot Inflation Report CPI came in above expectations yet again. In fact, headline inflation has only come in below expectations once in the past year. The U.S. CPI2022-09-09 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, September 9Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and how they help fill the puzzle of evidence: Dave: Traditional dive2022-09-07 · Market UpdatesHigh Yield: Is the Juice Worth the Squeeze?With stocks and bonds both down year-to-date (YTD), there have been very few places for investors to hide. In fact, through August, the 60/40 portfolio is having its wors2022-09-06 · Market UpdatesEmbracing Your Allocation OpportunityTwo Choices Let’s assume there’s only two potential investment options. For this exercise we’ll define risk as volatility in return stream, and exposure to large drawdown2022-09-05 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, September 2022Developments Over the Past Month As the summer comes to a close, it’s worth looking back to Memorial Day for perspective. Equities have been largely flattish and extremel2022-09-02 · Bonds & RatesQuantitative Tightening is HereThe balance sheets of global central banks have grown drastically in the last 15 years. The United States balance sheet alone grew from ~$4 trillion to ~$9 trillion over 2022-09-02 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, September 2Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and how they help fill the puzzle of evidence: Dave: The first half o2022-08-31 · Bonds & RatesThey’re All Hawks Now!Stocks Fall on the “No Pivot” Powell Speech SPX down over -5% in the past 3 days since Jackson Hole. Additional Fedspeak: BARKIN: JOB MARKET STILL VERY TIGHT, DEMAND IS H2022-08-26 · Bonds & RatesNo Pivot in Jackson HolePowell focused on inflation and the willingness to tolerate “some pain to households and businesses” to bring inflationary pressures down. He also says that it will likel2022-08-26 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, August 26Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fill the puzzle of evidence: Dave: Where will Fed Fu2022-08-24 · Bonds & RatesWhat to Expect From Jackson HoleThe Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium takes place on Friday and will open with a speech by Chair Powell at 10am EST. We expect Powell to reiterate that 2022-08-19 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, August 19Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fill the puzzle of evidence: Derek: We’ve had quite 2022-08-18 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: The “Non”-Inflation Reduction ActFor the first time in a while, we have something to discuss coming out of Washington D.C. On Tuesday, President Biden signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act (“IRA”),2022-08-17 · Bonds & RatesThe Fed May Not Be Your Friend For AwhileCPI Softer but Higher Unit Labor Costs (ULCs) Remain Problematic A sustained slowdown in inflation (the Fed’s clear goal) will require a sustained slowdown in economic ac2022-08-12 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, August 12Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and why: Joseph: All of the 2020 job losses have now been recovered. 2022-08-11 · Bonds & RatesPeak InflationU.S. Headline CPI was flat from June to July, slowing to 8.5% YoY. The core CPI (ex food & energy) rose +0.3%, keeping the YoY number at 5.9%. Headline CPI had the lo2022-08-08 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Thoughts Around EarningsSimply put, most market pundits were probably too pessimistic on the future earnings picture in the U.S. – at least for this quarter. I believe that corporate earnings su2022-08-05 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, August 5Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and why: Brad: Earnings continue to be solid for S&P companies, s2022-08-04 · Bonds & RatesWho is Wrong About Rates?Another Sizable Hike The Fed raised its policy rate by 75 bps as expected, which according to Chairman Powell brings the Fed Funds target range back to “neutral”. Powell 2022-08-03 · Market UpdatesMore Stocks. Less Bonds. Better Capture.The plan was to discuss valuations, but July created the opportunity to revisit two important concepts: Asset Allocation Upside and Downside Capture We wanted to touch on2022-08-01 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Think Small for Return DifferentiationA common misconception in the market is that it is difficult to invest in small-caps due to concerns regarding size and liquidity. Understandably, this could have been th2022-08-01 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, August 2022Developments Over the Past Month July 2022 Market Recap: The month of July was driven by better-than-feared earnings, economic data, and falling inflation expectations. T2022-07-29 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, July 29Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and why: Dave: The start of earnings season was a story of “not bad”,2022-07-28 · Investment ConceptsShould You Care About Inflation?As we see another fed fund’s hike of 75bps this week, we thought it would be worthwhile to simply talk about the basics of inflation. It is very easy to get caught in the2022-07-22 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, July 22Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and why: Joseph: Current fundamentals looking nothing like those of h2022-07-20 · Bonds & RatesCan the Fed Really Pivot?Another Month, Another (BIG) Hike. Next Wednesday, July 27th, the Fed is expected to hike 75bps and bring their overnight target up to the FOMC’s consensus neutral rate o2022-07-19 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q2 2022 Earnings Preview & Stock SplitsWhat an awesome 150th British Open this past weekend at St. Andrews! For those following, it was an interesting week for the players at “The Old Course”, as this is the f

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