This post is different. Maybe too different. I’m not sure why I’m writing it here, but these things have been heavy on my mind, so here it goes.
My grandaddy has a 1976 Custom Deluxe Chevy K10. He went to be with Jesus a few years ago, but it’s still his truck. For 50 years, it’s been patched up with duct tape, random parts, and sweat. Since I can remember, it’s been the only truck I’ve ever wanted. Give me all the money in the world and ask me what vehicle I’d buy; it’s that truck, and it’s not even close.
For the last two years, I’ve had the opportunity to rebuild it. For a man who’s impacted my family in more ways than I can understand on this side of the grave, it’s a way for me to honor him. The smell of that truck, the sound of the 350; the simplicity in it all makes me thankful.
I find myself increasingly attracted to things that are innately human. Things that provide agency, things that deepen relationships, things that I can understand how to diagnose and fix. I want to be tethered to the real world and the people I love the most. The ’76 K10 doesn’t ride like a new truck or have any bells and whistles, but to me, it represents the best of those things and then some.
Convenient? Yes, But…
The Chevy has a small block 350 in it. You can see, hear, and feel any problem.
Today’s engines are ECU-managed, require proprietary software, and need a dealer involved to do nearly anything.
I don’t want the car to monitor my location and send me emails about service updates. I don’t want an app in my car that asks for permissions I don’t fully understand. That’s convenient, but at what price? More efficient…sure. Better…I wouldn’t go that far.
New engines, new cars, and all the modern technology we have create convenience. That convenience is why technology has proliferated as it has. Everything is more convenient. That device in your hand, that we freely give our time, attention, and data to, sure seems like a required device to live in today’s world.
But there are drawbacks.
These devices were not designed to serve you. They want your attention and data because your engagement is profitable. How much of your privacy do you really give up? How much is our sovereignty being eroded?
Those answers are for another day, but the point to understand is that for most, the benefits of convenience overshadow the drawbacks for most. It’s easy to turn your cheek when you feel like your life is better because of technology.
It’s a different story when the technology that you knowingly or unknowingly feed threatens your livelihood.
Pattern Recognition
Technology is deflationary. New efficiency and productivity should lead to your purchasing power improving (that’s a subject we discuss frequently that I’m avoiding for this note). The most deflationary force I’ve ever seen is now here and being funded with sums of money that are hard to believe, at a rate that’s even harder to believe.
The credentials you’ve accumulated, the knowledge you have, the expertise you claim, it’s all in the process of being substituted by machines. You have baggage, emotions, feelings, the need to take a vacation, or be affirmed, etc. The machines have none of that, but have all of our expertise. In a profit-motivated world, economic logic drives change.
These machines are pattern recognition experts; dang, everything you do is being fed to them. Adam Livingston puts it best…“You are being compiled – reduced to your component behaviors, your characteristic responses, your predictable outputs. Function by function. Trait by trait. Behavior by behavior. Every element that constitutes your professional identity is being absorbed, encoded, reproduced, and optimized.”
This will take time to play out. But maybe not as much as we think. The machines are as dumb as they will ever be.
The Catch 22
I’m optimistic about what AI can do from a productivity standpoint. The things we are doing with it blow my mind. Am I concerned? Yes, but it’s possible to be both excited and concerned.
As a business, if we choose to lean in as thoughtfully as we can, I believe there’s value to unlock. If we choose to avoid it completely, I believe that’s a death sentence, and that hurts to type out loud.
Livelihood and Finances
Our advantage is, and will be, that we are human.
Ted Scott, the caddy for the #1 golfer in the world, makes this point through the lens of golf in this special video: The Man You Walk With
When answering the question about the purpose of the caddy, his explanation is perfect:
“…everybody thinks my job as a caddy is to carry the clubs, get the yardages, know the course. Yeah. That’s the basics, right? But really, your job as a caddy is more to deal with the man that you’re walking with than it is to deal with those things…because they’re humans and humans have insecurities and flaws and doubts and worries and stress.”
I believe our disadvantage vs. the machine is ultimately our lifeline.
There’s a human side to most jobs that cannot be replicated. The job of a financial advisor is near the top of the list. The human side of wealth creates longevity for those who steward it well. It’s our privilege to walk alongside you in these relationships.
AI is a deflationary force. How it collides with our financial system’s need for inflation is yet to be seen. While we don’t claim to know the future, we are convinced that our general thesis is directionally accurate. Protecting purchasing power demands that asset allocation be done well. Bondholders beware.
We Can Still Win
Maybe I’m losing my mind, but in a job that feels like The Matrix and a front row seat to the technological advancements happening, I want more and more to be human.
I think, get optimistic, and get worried about all this stuff too much. Through all of that, I’m learning more each day why a conversation with the old dude at Fisherman’s Discount (our local bait shop) draws me in.
He works slowly, talks slower, and oozes an understanding of our waters and the reel in his hand. He doesn’t know Claude, or Chat, or any of their friends, but he knows where the speckled trout are piled up. He is rushed by nothing, and there’s no device to distract him. If I have a question, I can’t text him, email him, or even call him. I have to go see him and speak face-to-face. That’s inconvenient. It’s also where the relationship is made.
How many of his type are left? I’m not sure.
My hope is that the threat of AI overshadows convenience and triggers an awakening towards the darker side of technology. Maybe it can pull us out of the matrix we all seem to be pulled into more and more each day.
There’s so much that I could unpack in this note, but I tried to keep it relevant to our world. I’m aware that not many people care what I have to say, but I wrote a longer version for my kids and felt the urge to share some of that here.
We are thankful for your trust and the ability to help defend your purchasing power. I have a feeling our strategies and solutions will be needed as the printer is going to run hot.
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