Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from historic market movement to inflation and of course, tariffs. Enjoy!
Brad: High VIX has coincided with near-term weakness, but the benefit of improving chances for long-term upside once cleared
Brett: and a run of consecutive high VIX closes has occurred only in the wildest of markets, with chop continuing but room for upside
Source: @subutrade as of 04.08.2025
Beckham: While markets are digesting Wednesday’s huge move higher, history has shown those moves to be a potential precursor to continued strength
Brad: Historically, a 20% drawdown in the S&P 500 has been a generally good time to put money to work
Source: Raymond James as of 04.07.2025
Brad: with broad strength across stocks of all sizes and styles
Data as of 04.07.2025
Joseph: Pundits and strategists seem split on recession vs. no recession, but in general, a 20% drop in the S&P 500 has indicated material economic weakness
Data as of 04.08.2025
Brad: but if high-yield spreads are an indicator of economic strength or weakness, the evidence for a recession is not there yet
Brian: One of the more notable moves in the past week has been a complete loss of strength in the US dollar
Chart via WSJ as of 04.09.2025
Jake: and while the general trend of US Dollar leadership remains in place, it’s in a more tenuous spot than in recent years
Data as of 04.09.2025
John Luke: Bonds are providing very little support to equity investors hoping to diversify away from extreme outcomes
Dave: with bonds especially unhelpful after the tariff announcement
Chart via WSJ as of 04.09.2025
Dave: Government inflation headlines show a steady reduction in year-over-over price increases
Data as of 04.10.2025
JD: but when you look at the cumulative rise in the cost of the items we consume, you can see why protecting purchasing power is critical
Data as of 04.10.2025
Dave: Earnings season is here, with anxiety hopefully setting the table for the typical batch of positive surprises
Data as of 04.04.2025
John Luke: The greater question for earnings is, how much will the attempt at deficit reduction impact the amazing rise in corporate profit margins?
Source: Hussman Strategic Advisors as of 04.05.2025
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