Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:


John Luke: This week was mostly about inflation, with CPI Supercore running hot


Source: MKM as of 04.10.2024


Brian: with auto insurance becoming a larger and more painful component


Source: Bloomberg as of 04.11.2024


Joseph: and services as a whole staying stubbornly high after receding from peak year-over-year rates


Data as of 04.10.2024


Brett: the story is the same in Europe


Data as of 04.10.2024


Beckham: Manufacturing is becoming a differentiator for the U.S. vs. the European Union


Data as of March 2024


Dave: which is showing up in a stable, positive jobs picture in the U.S.


Data as of 04.05.2024


Joseph: and as long as people have jobs, they’re going to spend money and keep the economy growing


Source: JP Morgan as of March 2024


 Brad: The timing of FOMC rate cuts continues to get pushed out, as we remain in a “pause”


Data as of 04.10.2024


John Luke: with a slow, quiet bleed in quantitative tightening continuing


Data as of 04.10.2024


JD: and the U.S. government debt burden just piles up


Source: Jefferies as of March 2024


Beckham: The area of the market that’s been most tied to the movements in rates has been Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)


Data as of 04.09.2024


Beckham: with the same pattern happening in European REITs


Data as of 04.09.2024


Joseph: and what is now 25+ years of no price appreciation in U.S. office REIT stocks


Data as of 04.10.2024


Brett: We’ve entered a blackout window preventing a high % of U.S. companies from buying back stock during earnings season


Data as of 04.05.2024


John Luke: at a time when U.S. stocks are getting a bit wobbly after a steady 5-month uptrend


Source: Strategas as of 04.10.2024


Dave: Hopefully, after a long period in which the S&P 500 has dominated earnings


Source: Meketa as of January 2024


Dave: we may be closer to a broadening of growth rates across more industries and geographies



John Luke: While sentiment after the rally may have become a bit too giddy


Data as of 04.05.2024


Brian: we seem to have the general support of a shrunken supply of stocks to soak up investor cash


Data as of 04.08.2024




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