Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:


John Luke: Inflation comps get tougher in the next few months vs. the heart of the 2022 Ukraine spike



Source: Bianco as of 04.12.2023


John Luke: which seems to be adding to market confusion about the Fed’s plans for rates


Source: Bianco as of 04.06.2023


Dave: Year-to-date market cap gains have been bunched into the largest tech names


Source: Strategas as of 04.04.2023


Dave: a pattern that is more typical of down years not up


Source: Strategas as of 04.11.2023


Dave: US earnings have actually seen a larger cut than European ones, pretty rare in recent downturns


Source: Bernstein as of 04.12.2023


John Luke: and that’s before the unemployment spikes that often come following rate hike cycles


Source: Bernstein as of 04.03.2023


John Luke: Housing prices may be stagnant but they’ve had one heckuva rise in the past decade


Source: Creative Planning as of 04.07.2023


John Luke: which, when combined with higher rates, leads to math that is significantly in favor of renting over buying


Data as of 04.07.2023


John Luke: CPI might be elevated but it’s nothing compared to the growth in U.S. government spending


Source: Creative Planning as of 04.07.2023


John Luke: which puts us on track for another fun debt ceiling showdown


Source: Bianco as of 04.10.2023

John Luke: If October was the low for stocks, the conditions are quite different than previous lows


Source: Strategas as of 04.12.2023




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