Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:


Brad: Earnings among US stocks have continued to decline in recent months, though projections for next year remain robust.


Source: Strategas as of 03.31.2024


Derek: Either way, US Stocks have proven to be superior to what an investor could have captured outside of the United States.


Source: Rothchild & Co as of 01.31.2024


John Luke:  Disinflation appears to have been a transitory base-effect improvement, while underlying inflationary pressures look to be entrenched and broadening.


Source: PGM Global as of 03.31.2024


Brian: The good news is that service inflation is mostly wages, so wage growth may continue to outpace broader inflation.


Source: Federal Reserve as of 03.31.2024


Beckham: the 10-year yield had retraced the entire November to March interest rate rally that was driven by the view that we’d see up to 7 rates cuts.


Source: Aptus, Treasury as of 04.18.2024


Dave: This has been the cause of US bonds having one of their worst starts to the year they’ve ever seen.


Source: Bianco as of 04.15.2024


John Luke: One issue is bonds have little room to run even if there is normalization in the yield curve.


Source: Bloomberg as of 03.31.2024


Brian: meanwhile, US equities have clearly ebbed and flowed in their returns over the years, but sticking with an allocation has compounded returns 100-fold the past ~40 years


Source: Ritholtz Wealth Management as of 03.31.2024


John Luke: Equities have been the place to be globally for the long-term as well.


Source: Credit Suisse as of 12.31.2022


Brian: Sticking with equities, simply excluding the largest 10 stocks in the S&P 500 would have led to outperformance over the past 50+ years.


Source: Ned Davis Research as of 4.11.2024


Brad: A similar effect has been seen in the outperformance of equal weight vs market weight over time, though the time frames of relative performance have varied.


 Source: JP Morgan as of 3.31.2024


John Luke: Fortunately for investors looking to be overweight equities and hedge through options rather than bonds, the cost of protecting a portfolio from falling (in this case more than 5%) was very cheap at the end of the quarter.



Source: Aptus as of 3.31.2024


Mark: Investors have seemingly taken notice in recent weeks.


Source: CBOE as of 4.12.2024






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