Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:
John Luke: Looks like markets have restored expectations of 25 bps hike after wavering last month
Source: Bianco as of 04.20.2023
John Luke: with expectations for actual cuts pushed out to fall vs. summer
Source: Bianco as of 04.17.2023
Mark: It’s been a really weird year, with reversion of 2022 outcomes the most common theme
Source: Bloomberg as of 03.31.2023
Dave: and wild sentiment shifts over very short periods
Source: Sevens Report as of 04.17.2023
Dave: with an analog to a very choppy late 1940’s being discussed as one of the rare comparable periods?
Source: Strategas as of 04.10.2023
Dave: Money supply is going through a sharp decline after a sharp COVID-driven rise
Source: Raymond James as of 04.17.2023
Dave: Putting it almost all the way back to it’s pre-COVID trend line
Source: Raymond James as of 04.17.2023
Brad: while the Treasury’s general account is still flush but not quite as flush as it was at peak liquidity
Source: Strategas as of 04.17.2023
John Luke: Folks aged 55 and over have shown no signs of returning to the workforce post-COVID
Source: Schwab as of 04.14.2023
John Luke: with more employment for younger populations seemingly the only way they’ll ever grow into being able to afford houses again
Data as of 12.31.2023
Derek: Hard to know the direction but global economies seem to be syncing together after some wild dispersions post-COVID
Source: Schwab as of 03.31.2023
Beckham: but there’s a whole lot of dispersion by valuation
Source: Ned Davis as of 03.31.2023
John Luke: and earnings for US large-cap companies are diverging from underlying economic conditions
Source: Bloomberg as of 04.18.2023
JD: Even the greatest bull market needed reinvested dividends to become great
Source: Schwab as of 12.31.2022
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