Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:


John Luke: Looks like markets have restored expectations of 25 bps hike after wavering last month


Source: Bianco as of 04.20.2023


John Luke: with expectations for actual cuts pushed out to fall vs. summer


Source: Bianco as of 04.17.2023


Mark: It’s been a really weird year, with reversion of 2022 outcomes the most common theme


Source: Bloomberg as of 03.31.2023


Dave: and wild sentiment shifts over very short periods


Source: Sevens Report as of 04.17.2023


Dave: with an analog to a very choppy late 1940’s being discussed as one of the rare comparable periods?


Source: Strategas as of 04.10.2023


Dave: Money supply is going through a sharp decline after a sharp COVID-driven rise


Source: Raymond James as of 04.17.2023


Dave: Putting it almost all the way back to it’s pre-COVID trend line


Source: Raymond James as of 04.17.2023


Brad: while the Treasury’s general account is still flush but not quite as flush as it was at peak liquidity


Source: Strategas as of 04.17.2023


John Luke: Folks aged 55 and over have shown no signs of returning to the workforce post-COVID


Source: Schwab as of 04.14.2023


John Luke: with more employment for younger populations seemingly the only way they’ll ever grow into being able to afford houses again


Data as of 12.31.2023


Derek: Hard to know the direction but global economies seem to be syncing together after some wild dispersions post-COVID


Source: Schwab as of 03.31.2023


Beckham: but there’s a whole lot of dispersion by valuation


Source: Ned Davis as of 03.31.2023


John Luke: and earnings for US large-cap companies are diverging from underlying economic conditions


Source: Bloomberg as of 04.18.2023


JD: Even the greatest bull market needed reinvested dividends to become great


Source: Schwab as of 12.31.2022





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