Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

 

John Luke: Looks like markets have restored expectations of 25 bps hike after wavering last month

 

Source: Bianco as of 04.20.2023

 

John Luke: with expectations for actual cuts pushed out to fall vs. summer

 

Source: Bianco as of 04.17.2023

 

Mark: It’s been a really weird year, with reversion of 2022 outcomes the most common theme

 

Source: Bloomberg as of 03.31.2023

 

Dave: and wild sentiment shifts over very short periods

 

Source: Sevens Report as of 04.17.2023

 

Dave: with an analog to a very choppy late 1940’s being discussed as one of the rare comparable periods?

 

Source: Strategas as of 04.10.2023

 

Dave: Money supply is going through a sharp decline after a sharp COVID-driven rise

 

Source: Raymond James as of 04.17.2023

 

Dave: Putting it almost all the way back to it’s pre-COVID trend line

 

Source: Raymond James as of 04.17.2023

 

Brad: while the Treasury’s general account is still flush but not quite as flush as it was at peak liquidity

 

Source: Strategas as of 04.17.2023

 

John Luke: Folks aged 55 and over have shown no signs of returning to the workforce post-COVID

 

Source: Schwab as of 04.14.2023

 

John Luke: with more employment for younger populations seemingly the only way they’ll ever grow into being able to afford houses again

 

Data as of 12.31.2023

 

Derek: Hard to know the direction but global economies seem to be syncing together after some wild dispersions post-COVID

 

Source: Schwab as of 03.31.2023

 

Beckham: but there’s a whole lot of dispersion by valuation

 

Source: Ned Davis as of 03.31.2023

 

John Luke: and earnings for US large-cap companies are diverging from underlying economic conditions

 

Source: Bloomberg as of 04.18.2023

 

JD: Even the greatest bull market needed reinvested dividends to become great

 

Source: Schwab as of 12.31.2022

 

 

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