The Market in Pictures, April 26

by | Apr 26, 2024 | Blog, Charts

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

John Luke: Like savers vs. borrowers, there is a huge split right now between services and goods inflation

 

Data as of 04.21.2024

 

Beckham: and the stickiness of services inflation is what’s keeping the FOMC in this long “pause” mode

 

Source: Apollo as of 04.19.2024

 

John Luke: historically speaking, stocks can continue to perform in an inflationary environment as long as the economy holds up

 

Source: Ned Davis Research as of 04.12.2024

 

Brett: On the other end of the spectrum, bonds have been unable to sustain a bounce in this higher-inflation regime

 

Source: Fidelity as of 04.14.2024

 

Dave: with some fixed-income ETFs producing nearly the same volatility as supposedly “riskier” stocks

 

Source: Strategas as of 04.22.2024

 

Joseph: and the bond bear market extending into easily the worst environment since the inception of the aggregate bond index

 

Source: Strategas as of 04.22.2024

 

John Luke: One key driver of sticky inflation is tight labor supply

 

Source: BCA Research as of March 2024

 

Brad: and as anyone who flies can confirm, airport activity is back to its highs after the COVID-induced slump

 

Source: @staunovo as of March 2024

 

John Luke: The split between savers and borrowers is quite pronounced in major US corporations, leading to REDUCED interest expense despite higher rates

 

Data as of March 2024

 

Beckham: with similar activity on the personal side, it’s been a long time since banks have seen the interest margins they’d like

 

Data as of March 2024

 

John Luke: but on the other end of things, the government can’t issue debt fast enough and the public is poised to be the big buyers

  

Source: CBO as of March 2024

 

Dave: Q1 earnings are underway, with modest gains expected

 

Source: Goldman Sachs as of 04.19.2024

 

Brad: with larger growth expected as we get into Q2

 

Source: DataTrek as of 04.22.2024

 

Brian: and on a long-term basis, the continuation of a healthy long-term trend

 

Source: Apollo as of 04.22.2024

 

John Luke: Despite talk of converting our economy to “clean” energy, US oil production has never been higher

 

Data as of March 2024

 

Joseph: making us less and less dependent on foreign countries for our energy supply

 

 

John Luke: Another interesting trend that requires looking globally, wage growth and higher-end labor has been mostly a US experience in recent years

 

 

Brian: We hear a lot about the Mag 7 but this has truly been a historic divergence between cap-weighted US Large Caps and their equal-weighted equivalent

 

Source: Paulsen Perspectives as of 04.19.2024

 

 

Disclosures

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed.

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Advisory services offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm’s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198.

Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama.

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