Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:


Beckham: After this week’s data and Fedspeak, it’s now a toss-up for markets whether the first rate cut comes in early June or late July


Source: CME as of 04.05.2024


Joseph: a far cry from thoughts of seeing 3-4 cuts by summer, as expected by markets at the turn of this year


Data as of 04.02.2024


John Luke: Contrasting the delay of expected rate cuts is the persistent rise in GDP estimates


Data as of 04.02.2024


Brett: which is somewhat coincident with a trough and rise in the ISM Manufacturing Survey


Data as of 04.01.2024


Dave: and a steady increase in non-farm payrolls month after month (March preliminary read came in at 300k)


Data as of 04.01.2024


Joseph: High levels of construction in manufacturing facilities are surely part of the equation, running at a $2 trillion annualized pace


Data as of March 2024


Beckham: it’s also hard to deny the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on overall productivity levels, which feeds into growth


Data as of March 2024


Dave: The first three months of 2024 have been pretty extreme in terms of return generated per unit of volatility


Source: Strategas as of 04.02.2024


Dave: even more pronounced when you consider the volatility in the “safe” bond market relative to stocks


Source: Strategas as of 04.02.2024


Brad: The story of a positive equity trend with low volatility has not gone unnoticed, and potentially adds a level of drawdown risk to consider


Source: Hi Mount as of 04.01.2024


Brian: also seen as the ultra-low cost of hedging, which for a thoughtful investor can provide a nice opportunity to reduce risk without disrupting the strategic stock/bond allocation


Source: Aptus as of 04.01.2024


John Luke: As good as stocks have been, from a fundamental standpoint it seems the risk may ultimately be higher in higher-yielding bonds than in the broader equity market


Source: State Street as of March 2024


Brad: and when you break down by sector and style it’s amazing to see how important it is to be discriminating as you go out into smaller-cap stocks (1/3 are non-earners!)



Brett: No one knows where stocks will end up in the coming years, but using history as a guide we should probably stay open-minded to a range of possibilities





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