Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from Fed debates to mixed economic data, to AI spending and corporate earnings, and stagnant housing and summer markets. Have a great weekend!
Joseph: Just when investors had embraced the Fed Chairman’s assessment of a healthy job market, we got a weak July employment report and major downward revisions to May and June
Jake: thus reversing market expectations back to those of a month ago, with rate cuts expected in September and October
John Luke: this as we got a taste of how FOMC debates used to go, before coordinated Fedspeak
Dave: We may say this again with Q3 data, but you can’t assess the 2025 economy without smoothing out the data throughout the pre-tariff and post-tariff periods
Brian: though a clear picture emerges that overall consumption has been lighter than in recent years
Source: Aptus via Bureau of Economic Analysis data
Dave: The other undeniable message is that capital expenditures are booming
Source: Goldman Sachs as of 07.29.2025
Brett: led by the AI hyperscalers
Image via WSJ 07.30.2025
Brad: Earnings estimates remain well below where they started in 2025
Dave: but they’ve begun to creep higher from the lowest levels going into this quarterly earnings season
Source: Strategas as of 07.28.2025
Ten: One area of the economy that’s still struggling to improve is housing, where activity is more stagnant than in recent years
Data as of July 2025
Arch: leading to a rare downturn in nationwide home prices
Data as of July 2025
John Luke: all at a time when prospective homebuyers are having a hard time making the math work for entering the market
Brad: Stories of late summer weakness often make an appearance at this time of year, but much of the outcomes have been dictated by the underlying conditions coming into August
Source: Strategas as of 07.30.2025
Dave: and it’s not like Wall Street strategists have gone overboard in chasing this market higher
Source: Strategas as of 07.28.2025
Beckham: and a return to owning strong businesses at a good price might be a good alternative to some of the junk that’s been bubbling to the top
Data as of 07.28.2025
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