Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:


Brad: Most Q2 earnings are out, and it’s generally been better-than-expected


Source: Strategas as of 08.07.23


Brad: leading to a bump in Q3 and Q4 estimates but not much carry-through into 2024


Source: Strategas as of 08.07.2023


JD: Most of this year’s market advance has been due to P/E multiples expanding


Source: Strategas as of 08.09.2023


Brad: leading to very low relative yields in stocks


Source: Strategas as of 08.08.2023


Joseph: and a tough comparison of near-term upside vs. downside


Source: Sevens Report as of 08.08.2023


John Luke: A serious contraction in temporary employment has often been an indicator of labor weakness


Data as of July 2023


Dave: but the weight of the evidence for an actual soft landing continues to fall into place


Source: Sevens Report as of 08.11.2023


John Luke: The downturn in bond prices has been the longest since the Aggregate Bond index was launched



John Luke: with a pretty ugly impact on the fixed income portion of portfolios


Source: Charlie Bilello as of 08.07.2023


John Luke: Ironically, money continues to flow into the big T-bond ETF despite the poor performance


Source: Strategas as of 08.08.2023


John Luke: perhaps giving hedge funds confidence in expecting lower bond prices/higher yields


Data as of August 2023


John Luke: The current battle with CPI has been mostly won, but secular cycles can see multiple iterations


 Source: Market Ear as of July 2023


John Luke: especially with the unprecedented fiscal boost during the COVID shutdowns


Source: Goldman Sachs as of 08.10.2023


John Luke: resulting in much higher interest expense for the US government to finance the fiscal boost


Data as of August 2023


Joseph: Beyond the obvious concern for people and property, another reason to hope for a light hurricane season


Data as of July 2023






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