Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:
Brad: Most Q2 earnings are out, and it’s generally been better-than-expected
Source: Strategas as of 08.07.23
Brad: leading to a bump in Q3 and Q4 estimates but not much carry-through into 2024
Source: Strategas as of 08.07.2023
JD: Most of this year’s market advance has been due to P/E multiples expanding
Source: Strategas as of 08.09.2023
Brad: leading to very low relative yields in stocks
Source: Strategas as of 08.08.2023
Joseph: and a tough comparison of near-term upside vs. downside
Source: Sevens Report as of 08.08.2023
John Luke: A serious contraction in temporary employment has often been an indicator of labor weakness
Data as of July 2023
Dave: but the weight of the evidence for an actual soft landing continues to fall into place
Source: Sevens Report as of 08.11.2023
John Luke: The downturn in bond prices has been the longest since the Aggregate Bond index was launched
John Luke: with a pretty ugly impact on the fixed income portion of portfolios
Source: Charlie Bilello as of 08.07.2023
John Luke: Ironically, money continues to flow into the big T-bond ETF despite the poor performance
Source: Strategas as of 08.08.2023
John Luke: perhaps giving hedge funds confidence in expecting lower bond prices/higher yields
Data as of August 2023
John Luke: The current battle with CPI has been mostly won, but secular cycles can see multiple iterations
Source: Market Ear as of July 2023
John Luke: especially with the unprecedented fiscal boost during the COVID shutdowns
Source: Goldman Sachs as of 08.10.2023
John Luke: resulting in much higher interest expense for the US government to finance the fiscal boost
Data as of August 2023
Joseph: Beyond the obvious concern for people and property, another reason to hope for a light hurricane season
Data as of July 2023
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