Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:


Mark: The ability of US corporations to sit patiently with long-term debt has been one of the unique attributes of this rate-hiking cycle


Data as of July 2023


Dave: and current homeowners sit with that same luxury


Data as of July 2023


John Luke: combined with the rise in home prices, prospective homebuyers are fighting to find a way in


Data as of July 2023


Brad: Q2 earnings mostly over, better than expectations that had been reduced throughout the year


 Source: Strategas as of 08.14.2023


Dave: leading to a stabilization in consensus estimates after a 12 month stretch in which estimates fell by over 10%


Source: Raymond James as of 08.16.2023


Dave: Supply chain reliance on China continues to fall


Source: Strategas as of July 2023


John Luke: with growth from Mexico and EU/UK offsetting up much of the recent decline


Data as of July 2023


Dave: Large-cap growth has become as concentrated at the top as it was in the dot-com bubble



Dave: but rotation month-to-month has been useful in keeping the recovery alive


 Source: PSC as of 08.15.2023


John Luke: Fed Funds has finally overtaken core inflation


Data as of 08.14.2023


John Luke: with real rates now reaching levels not seen since before the global financial crisis


Source: Macrobond as of 08.14.2023


John Luke: but will the hikes to date be enough to offset the shrinking labor supply as workers continue to retire in record numbers?


Data as of June 2023


Joseph: The US stock market has stood out in recent decades, or high risk-adjusted returns. Tech has played a key role but it’s not the sole factor


Source: Strategas as of 08.14.2023





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