The Market in Pictures, August 25

by | Aug 25, 2023 | Blog, Charts

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

 

John Luke: It’s unusual for stocks to rally when real yields are screaming higher

 

Data as of August 2023

 

Dave: and it’s setting up a particularly extreme divergence in valuations of large, high-growth stocks

 

Source: Strategas as of 08.22.2023

 

John Luke: on top of that, term premiums in Treasuries are now reaching levels that have coincided with resistance for equity rallies

 

Source: Strategas as of 08.23.2023

 

Dave: 2023 equity inflows have been relatively muted given the large first-half rally

 

Source: Strategas as of 08.21.2023

 

Dave: yet the go-to ETF for long-duration Treasury bonds has seen significant inflows throughout its bear market

 

Source: Goldman Sachs

 

Dave: That bear market in bonds has been easily the longest of the “Agg Bond” era going back to the mid-1970s

 

Source: Strategas as of 08.23.2023

 

John Luke: the good news there is that bonds purchased today have significantly lower risk of price depreciation overcoming coupons

 

Data as of August 2023

 

Dave: and MAYBE the history of hiking cycles ending could remove the rate headwind faced by bondholders

 

Source: Strategas as of 08.23.2023

 

Dave: Credit card delinquencies are rising a bit, but only from very low levels to average levels

 

Source: Strategas as of 08.23.2023

 

Beckham: partly due to the good fortune of acquiring mortgages pre-2022

 

 

Source: Bloomberg as of 08.22.2023

 

Dave: buy also being more savvy in moving money from where it’s treated poorly (bank sweep) to where it’s treated better (money markets)

 

Source: Bianco as of 08.09.2023

 

Dave: Stagnant home prices may foreshadow falling rents in the months ahead

 

Source: Macrobond as of 08.21.2023

 

John Luke: but GDP forecasts are rising

 

Source: Bianco as of 08.18.2023

 

 John Luke: and goods prices look ready to reclaim their spot as a drive of inflation

 

Source: Raymond James as of 08.23.2023

 

Dave: The world outside of a handful of megacap tech stocks carries much fairer valuations

 

Source: Raymond James as of 08.22.2023

 

Joseph: but it’s important to remember that over the long haul, better companies and economies generally receive higher valuations

 

Source: TS Lombard as of August 2023

 

 

 

 

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Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed. 

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Advisory services offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm’s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198.

Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama.

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