Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:
Beckham: We just completed a 2 year period where both the NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 Equal Weight were flat. Lot of noise for no progress!
Source: Bespoke as of 11.30.2023
Brad: that said, November delivered the biggest monthly ease in financial conditions of the past 40 years
Source: Goldman Sachs as of 12.01.2023
Brett: with bonds contributing a hefty portion of that easing
Data as of 11.29.2023
John Luke: Markets have jumped way out in front of the Fed, anticipating rate cuts in by the end of 2024
Data as of 11.27.2023
Brad: Real yields are still near the highest levels since the financial crisis
Data as of 11.25.2023
Joseph: but they’ve come off of the multi-year highs made throughout the fall
Data as of 11.28.2023
Dave: The catalyst for the November surge seems to be fresh comfort that the Fed has inflation under control
Source: Raymond James as of 11.27.2023
John Luke: as investors work back from an extreme period of underestimating inflation
Source: Corbu as of 11.24.2023
John Luke: though it will be interesting to see how things play out if the wide dispersion of monthly outcomes settles into something steadier
Source: Strategas as of 11.20.2023
Dave: The other key piece to market outcomes is actual earnings. After major rotation between sectors and styles, markets are expecting things to converge in 2024
Source: Raymond James as of 11.24.2023
Dave: and while Mag 7 may have run well ahead of its earnings impact
Source: Strategas as of 11.27.2023
Dave: they’re part of sectors (tech/communications/consumer discretionary) that have also delivered the strongest earnings
Source: Strategas as of 11.27.2023
Joseph: Before we share Wall Street’s 2024 Strategist Targets, let’s revisit their 2023 forecasts
Data as of 12.07.2022
John Luke: so take these with a grain of salt
Data as of 11.27.2023
Brad: One thing to consider in the rates market is the impact of the huge US government debt maturing in the next 12 months
Source: Strategas as of 11.27.2023
Brett: but thankfully many US corporations and consumers have been relative beneficiaries of the higher rate cycle
Data as of November 2023
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