Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from Mag 7 to the rest, FOMC plans and bond yields around the globe, to inflation expectations and the economy. Hope you have a great weekend!
John Luke: People obsess over Mag 7 concentration, but that’s generally how market leadership evolves in every region
Brett: and it’s not like it’s a single batch of companies sharing identical outcomes
John Luke: Strategist targets are coming out, with high single-digit % gains probably more tied to average returns than any special insight
Source: Strategas as of 12.08.2025
Matt: even though the “average” 8-10% return rarely happens
Jake: Market expectations for 2026 rate cuts are slightly ahead of the FOMC’s “Dot Plot”
Joseph: which is not unreasonable, as the overall balance of hawks vs. doves makes multi-year lows
Source: Bloomberg as of 12.10.2025
Beckham: Longer-term bond yields have been unusually resistant to following along with the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle
Source: Apollo as of 12.10.2025
John Luke: though the yield reaction to the 2025 cuts has been much milder than in 2024
Source: Strategas as of 12.10.2025
John Luke: either way, yields in the U.S. have been far better behaved than in the rest of the developed world
Data as of 12.10.2025
John Luke: Key to the Fed’s ability to cut rates is the continued restraint of market inflation expectations
Source: Strategas
John Luke: that said, it’s unlikely that the public will see any of the inflation data as a win, given the cumulative impact of rising prices
Data as of 12.08.2025
Brad: Consumer confidence may be low, but an actual recession doesn’t seem likely
Source: Strategas as of 12.11.2025
Brad: especially with the strength in corporate profits
Source: Macrobond as of 12.11.2025
Dave: and the administration would seem to have every incentive to run the economy at a strong pace going into the midterms
Source: Goldman Sachs as of 12.09.2025
Dave: Against pundit calls of an overvalued market, it’s actually been real earnings driving stocks higher
Brian: with only energy failing to deliver positive earnings in 2025
Data as of 12.08.2025
Brad: International stocks have had a great year, though not quite as earnings-driven as US stocks
Source: Goldman Sachs as of 12.11.2025
John: and regardless of short-term market performance, the US is where global investors want to be
Source: ISG as of 12.11.2025
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