Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:
JL: This year stands alone in modern history, for its combination of stock / bond weakness
Data as of 11.30.2022
JL: with the negative correlation in recent ultra-low inflation years now returning to more typical patterns
Source: The Fed Guy as of 11.30.2022
JL: Valuations have come down from extreme readings
Source: Bianco as of 11.30.2022
Dave: but apparently not enough to motivate insiders to step up their buying
Source: Strategas as of 11.30.2022
Dave: It may feel like every fund is loaded with megacap tech, but institutions as a whole are holding them at less than index weights
Source: Morgan Stanley as of 11.28.2022
Joseph: Airline passenger load has just about caught up to pre-pandemic levels. Interesting caveat, jet fuel usage is still 12% lower, meaning flights are more packed
Data as of 12.01.2022
Dave: In another energy-related divergence, energy stocks have raced far ahead of gains in crude oil prices
Source: Strategas as of 11.28
Dave: Between low valuations and the inflation backdrop, small cap investors would love to see a repeat of 1970s behavior
Source: Bank of America 11.30.2022
Brad: and other places to consider, if the recently weakened dollar trend persists into 2023
Source: Strategas as of 12.01.2022
Dave: We all know the Dow Jones Industrial Average has its quirks as a 30-stock price-weighted index. This year’s quirk is massive outperformance.
Source: Strategas as of 11.30.22
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