Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from a good run to playing catch-up, strong earnings to fun with strategist targets, and the balance between jobs and inflation that the Fed will need to play in 2026.
Enjoy your extended Christmas weekend!
Jake: It’s been a great run for stocks since the tariff tantrum
Data as of 12.21.2025
Brett: but an ongoing challenge for stock-pickers
Graphic via Bloomberg as of 12.22.2025
Joseph: with hope that this attempt at broadening will be the one that sticks
Data as of 12.22.2025
John: Despite media fears of a tech “bubble”, the entirety of this year’s rise in stocks has been driven by actual earnings growth
Source: Duality Research as of 12.22.2025
Ten: with strong profit margins a driving force of the strong earnings performance
Data as of 12.22.2025
John Luke: as companies are doing more with less, with the help of technology
Data as of 12.22.2025
John Luke: Strategist targets for 2026 are out, and as usual, not very provocative
Data as of 12.19.2025
John Luke: with even tighter clustering than normal
Source: Bloomberg as of 12.22.2025
JD: and if you want a good picture of what drives strategist targets, this year’s path shows you how useless they are for improving portfolio outcomes
Data as of 12.23.2025
Brian: Consumption continues to be the rock of the US economy
Data as of 12.23.2025
John Luke: and on the corporate side, credit seems to be picking up again after a lull
Graphic via Goldman Sachs as of 12.22.2025
John Luke: and perhaps even government finances are improving, with market gains resulting in higher tax receipts ahead
Source: Strategas as of 12.23.2025
Beckham: Lack of employment growth may be holding back the economy a bit, but the red dots below show a very mild constraint
Source: Piper Sandler as of 12.19.2025
Joseph: with low housing activity a more obvious contributor to overall growth
Data as of 12.24.2025
John Luke: a condition that could heavily benefit from lower mortgage rates
John Luke: One benefit of housing restraint is the helpful impact on inflation levels
Source: Strategas as of 12.23.2025
Dave: leaving services as the primary source of remaining inflation
Data as of 12.23.2025
Brad: and general inflation expectations have been incredibly stable since the 2022 surge and retracement (as measured by the US Breakeven 10 Year Treasury Index)
Source: Bloomberg as of 12.22.2025
John Luke: The quantitative tightening (QT) of the past couple of years may have taken the Fed’s balance sheet about as low as we can expect to see
Graphic via Lyn Alden as of 12.22.2025
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Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed.
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