The Market in Pictures, December 27

by | Dec 27, 2024 | Blog, Charts

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

 

Beckham: Inflation has made it back to the general range accepted by most central bankers

 

Data as of November 2024

 

 

John Luke: though long-term and short-term rates have significantly diverged since the FOMC decided to start cutting rates

 

Source: Strategas as of 12.20.2024

 

 

John Luke: and consumer outlooks for inflation are far from settled

 

Data as of 12.23.2024

 

 

Brett: There’s always something for investors to fear, though it changes over time and is usually not the resulting market catalyst (see 2023 “hard landing”

 

Data as of 12.17.2024

 

 

Joseph: and market “rules” often break (see inverted yield curve -> hard landing)

 

 

 

Brett: Popularly quoted indicators are often not only wrong but often based on stories not data

 

 

 

Brad: and the supposedly tight connection between the Fed balance sheet and equity performance

 

 

 

John Luke: Contrary to popular belief, big up years for stocks (like 2023/2024) occur more often than even small down years

 

 

 

Brian: shown another way, many miss the (positive) right tails by worrying too much about the (negative) left tails

 

 

 

Arch: But here we are, with strategists regularly taking the safe formula of (Current price + 5 to 10%)

 

Data as of November 2024

 

 

JD: and after last year’s overly conservative outlooks, they’re ratcheting back to the old formula

 

 

 

Brad: Emerging markets have been the ugly duckling of portfolios in recent years

 

 

 

Brad: Emerging markets have been the ugly duckling of portfolios in recent years

 

 

 

Dave: and like most equity diversifiers, completely stomped by the superior profitability of megacap US tech companies

 

 

 

Brad: The handful of stocks that change lives are much more obvious in the rearview mirror than they were through the windshield

 

Data as of November 2024

 

Disclosures

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed.

Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially.

This commentary offers generalized research, not personalized investment advice. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment services or performance. Nothing in this commentary should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future investment returns. All investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with an investment & tax professional before implementing any investment strategy. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible.

Advisory services are offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm’s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198. Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama. ACA-2412-19. 

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Advisory services offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm’s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198.

Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama.

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aptus Capital Advisors (“Aptus”) and/or the individual Aptus Employee being interviewed as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Aptus reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs and there is no guarantee that such assessments of investments will be accurate. There is no guarantee that strategies or recommendations will equal or exceed any expectations or goals discussed. The discussions, outlook, and viewpoints featured are not intended to be investment advice and do not take into account specific client investment objectives.

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