Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:


Joseph: Like last year, Wall Street strategist targets are quite conservative for 2024



Brett: and in the past few years they just seem to tag along with wherever prices currently stand


Source: @WarrenPies as of 12.27.2023


Beckham: confirmed by the wider population of active investment managers who seem to also just follow price


Source: National Association of Active Investment Managers as of 12.27.2023


Joseph: In just a few weeks, the huge discount for small-cap equity valuations has shrunk to almost normal levels


Source: Raymond James as of 12.27.2023


Dave: but the impact of this volatility is a major drag on compounded returns



John Luke: Rate cut expectations for 2024 seem to have raced far ahead of reality


Data as of 12.27.2023


Dave: especially without a decent spike in unemployment


Source: Strategas as of 12.26.2023


John Luke: and while rate cuts seem fun, history says that eventually market volatility makes a comeback


Source: The Market Ear as of 12.26.2023


John Luke: Yield curve inversions have historically been a reliable precursor to recessions, and this is no quick inversion



Dave: but don’t sleep on the price of oil as a distinguishing factor for recessions vs. soft landings


Source: Raymond James as of 12.27.2023


Dave: Small banks have been particularly weak performers this year


Source: Bianco as of 12.26.2023


Brad: and would seem to be a large distinction between those lending for single-family


Data as of December 2023


Brad: versus multi-family


Data as of December 2023


Brian: History will not look kindly on entities that locked in decades of negative real yields for their “safe” money


Source: Aptus as of December 2023


JD: It’s never a bad time for a reminder that clients will always have an excuse to bail but the best plan is the one they can stick with


Data as of December 2023






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