Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:
Joseph: Like last year, Wall Street strategist targets are quite conservative for 2024
Brett: and in the past few years they just seem to tag along with wherever prices currently stand
Source: @WarrenPies as of 12.27.2023
Beckham: confirmed by the wider population of active investment managers who seem to also just follow price
Source: National Association of Active Investment Managers as of 12.27.2023
Joseph: In just a few weeks, the huge discount for small-cap equity valuations has shrunk to almost normal levels
Source: Raymond James as of 12.27.2023
Dave: but the impact of this volatility is a major drag on compounded returns
John Luke: Rate cut expectations for 2024 seem to have raced far ahead of reality
Data as of 12.27.2023
Dave: especially without a decent spike in unemployment
Source: Strategas as of 12.26.2023
John Luke: and while rate cuts seem fun, history says that eventually market volatility makes a comeback
Source: The Market Ear as of 12.26.2023
John Luke: Yield curve inversions have historically been a reliable precursor to recessions, and this is no quick inversion
Dave: but don’t sleep on the price of oil as a distinguishing factor for recessions vs. soft landings
Source: Raymond James as of 12.27.2023
Dave: Small banks have been particularly weak performers this year
Source: Bianco as of 12.26.2023
Brad: and would seem to be a large distinction between those lending for single-family
Data as of December 2023
Brad: versus multi-family
Data as of December 2023
Brian: History will not look kindly on entities that locked in decades of negative real yields for their “safe” money
Source: Aptus as of December 2023
JD: It’s never a bad time for a reminder that clients will always have an excuse to bail but the best plan is the one they can stick with
Data as of December 2023
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