Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

Dave: Markets are currently obsessed with the idea of multiple rate cuts in 2024. Historically, rate “holds” have been friendlier to stocks than cuts


Source: Strategas as of 12.04.2023

Brett: and even with cuts, performance has been much different depending on the economic outcomes


Data as of November 2023

John Luke: Not sure the recent drop in yields looks much different than the retracements that came before it


Source: Strategas as of 12.05.2023

Brian: especially with the persistent rise in real yields from the historically negative levels of the COVID period


Source: Aptus via Department of the Treasury as of 12.01.2023

Brad: We’ve shown the 2023 dominance of the Mag Seven in a number of ways; here’s the 7 vs. the 493


Source: Bloomberg as of 12.06.2023


Brad: with the average stock having its worst performance of the 2000s relative to the cap-weighted S&P 500


Source: Strategas as of 12.06.2023


Dave: but since the October lows, the lagging has ended


Source: Strategas as of 12.05.2023


Dave: with plenty of room for the average stock to work its way back towards the 2021 highs


Source: BofA as of 12.04.2023

Dave: One oddity we’ve noticed is that small-cap growth hasn’t dominated small-cap value the way we’ve seen in large-cap stocks


Source: Strategas as of 12.05.2023

Dave: perhaps from a mix of persistently low quality in small-cap growth relative to large, and the growing ranks of funds built to follow what’s been in favor


Source: Strategas as of 12.05.2023

Dave: A developing story could be the emerging rise in US labor productivity from the lowest levels in 40 years


Data as of November 2023

Brian: perhaps a factor that could keep unit labor costs from extending recent gains


Data as of 09.30.2023

Joseph: A December rally in stocks seems to be the consensus call, but it’s important to consider the funding needs of major participants like corporate pensions


Data as of 10.31.2023

Mark: and we also know that the corporate stock buyback window is about to close until earnings season in mid-January



Beckham: Sometimes you just need to sit back and marvel at the power of a company on a mission. Amazon takes on an oligopoly and is winning


Data as of September 2023



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