Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:
John Luke: Fed Funds expectations are still bouncing around on Fed talk / speculation
Source: Bloomberg as of 02.06.23
John Luke: but what remains consistent is the disconnect b/w the Fed and market expectations
Source: Bianco as of 02.06.23
Brad: Another clear pattern is future earnings estimates falling as earnings season progresses
Data as of 02.06.23
Dave: which is leading to a forward earnings crossing negative, a bad omen for equities in recent instances
Source: PSC as of 02.06.23
John Luke: Optimists take note, take out the FANGMAN stocks and forward earnings are forecasting 7.5% growth this year
Source: PGM as of 02.06.23
Dave: Early 2023 has been really weird, with junk racing FAR ahead of non-junk
Source: PSC as of 02.08.23
Joseph: and this despite PMIs contracting, which generally leads to quality > junk
Source: Piper as of 02.08.2023
Brad: Bank lending standards have tightened
Source: Strategas as of 02.06.2023
John Luke: but this tightening isn’t showing up in extra compensation for buyers of high yield
Source: Pavilion as of 02.06.2023
Dave: Buyers of emerging market indices are back to relying on China for a good chunk of the outcome
Source: Strategas as of 02.06.2023
Brad: which should prompt holders to look at just how poorly China has treated investors
Source: Strategas as of 02.06.2023
JD: Reminder, you eat compounded returns not average returns. And the volatility tax eats into your compounded returns
Source: Moontower as of 02.05.2023
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