Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:


John Luke: Fed Funds expectations are still bouncing around on Fed talk / speculation


Source: Bloomberg as of 02.06.23


John Luke: but what remains consistent is the disconnect b/w the Fed and market expectations


Source: Bianco as of 02.06.23


Brad: Another clear pattern is future earnings estimates falling as earnings season progresses


Data as of 02.06.23


Dave: which is leading to a forward earnings crossing negative, a bad omen for equities in recent instances


Source: PSC as of 02.06.23


John Luke: Optimists take note, take out the FANGMAN stocks and forward earnings are forecasting 7.5% growth this year


Source: PGM as of 02.06.23


Dave: Early 2023 has been really weird, with junk racing FAR ahead of non-junk


Source: PSC as of 02.08.23


Joseph: and this despite PMIs contracting, which generally leads to quality > junk


Source: Piper as of 02.08.2023


Brad: Bank lending standards have tightened


Source: Strategas as of 02.06.2023


John Luke: but this tightening isn’t showing up in extra compensation for buyers of high yield


Source: Pavilion as of 02.06.2023


Dave: Buyers of emerging market indices are back to relying on China for a good chunk of the outcome


Source: Strategas as of 02.06.2023


Brad: which should prompt holders to look at just how poorly China has treated investors


Source: Strategas as of 02.06.2023


JD: Reminder, you eat compounded returns not average returns. And the volatility tax eats into your compounded returns


Source: Moontower as of 02.05.2023







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