Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:
Dave: The typical pattern for earnings estimates is to start high and fade throughout the year
Source: Piper Sandler as of 02.16.2024
Brad: but so far in 2024, sales have generally been above estimates, and earnings even more above
Data as of 02.13.2024
Dave: especially for small caps
Data as of 02.12.2024
Brett: so maybe this will be the year that broader market earnings catch up to the megacap names
Data as of 02.12.2024
Brian: Megacap dominance was not a thing for most of the past 70 years
Data via GMO as of Jan 2024
Dave: and you can clearly say the “average” stock hasn’t done much since rate hikes began in March 2022
Source: Piper Sandler as of 02.12.2024
Joseph: Fed watchers have extended dates for the expected rate cut cycle
Source: CME as of 02.15.2024
John Luke: though markets are still ahead of where the actual policy-makers seem to be
Data as of 02.13.2024
Dave: as the level of inflation measured by monthly CPI has generally come down from the highs of 2022
Data as of 02.13.2024
Dave: it’s the flattening of the disinflationary move that has markets revisiting those expectations
Source: Raymond James as of 02.14.2024
Dave: Goods reflect a far heavier piece of the S&P 500 than they do in the service-heavy US economy
Data as of Jan 2024
Dave: No surprise but money is following the hottest sector of the market
Source: Strategas as of February 2024
Beckham: We know shelter has been sticky in the inflation measures, with investors continuing to own more of the market than in the past
Data as of January 2024
Beckham: with investors gradually crowding individuals out of the starter home market
Data as of January 2024
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