Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:


Dave: The typical pattern for earnings estimates is to start high and fade throughout the year


Source: Piper Sandler as of 02.16.2024


Brad: but so far in 2024, sales have generally been above estimates, and earnings even more above


Data as of 02.13.2024


Dave: especially for small caps


Data as of 02.12.2024


Brett: so maybe this will be the year that broader market earnings catch up to the megacap names


Data as of 02.12.2024


Brian: Megacap dominance was not a thing for most of the past 70 years


Data via GMO as of Jan 2024


Dave: and you can clearly say the “average” stock hasn’t done much since rate hikes began in March 2022


Source: Piper Sandler as of 02.12.2024


Joseph: Fed watchers have extended dates for the expected rate cut cycle


Source: CME as of 02.15.2024


John Luke: though markets are still ahead of where the actual policy-makers seem to be


Data as of 02.13.2024


Dave: as the level of inflation measured by monthly CPI has generally come down from the highs of 2022


Data as of 02.13.2024


Dave: it’s the flattening of the disinflationary move that has markets revisiting those expectations


Source: Raymond James as of 02.14.2024


Dave: Goods reflect a far heavier piece of the S&P 500 than they do in the service-heavy US economy


Data as of Jan 2024


Dave: No surprise but money is following the hottest sector of the market


Source: Strategas as of February 2024


Beckham: We know shelter has been sticky in the inflation measures, with investors continuing to own more of the market than in the past


Data as of January 2024


Beckham: with investors gradually crowding individuals out of the starter home market


Data as of January 2024





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