Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:


John Luke: Before the FOMC meeting, markets took comfort that Treasury borrowing needs wouldn’t expand in the first half of 2024


Data as of January 2024


Beckham: and even a sizable reduction in expectations for the use of short-term bills


Source: Reflexivity as of 01.31.2024


John Luke: The jobs report shocked the market, implying that the trough of this economic cycle might be behind us


Data as of 02.02.2024


Brett: this despite a restrictive environment for real (nominal minus inflation) rate policy


Source: WSJ as of 01.30.2024


John Luke: yet significantly reducing the odds of a rate cut at the FOMC’s March meeting


Data as of 02.02.2024


Dave: On the earnings front, reports are trickling in and technology is the only area where earnings estimates have moved higher since October


Data as of 01.29.2024


Dave: this is partly due to maintaining high expectations for profit margins relative to other sectors


Source: Strategas as of 01.30.2024


Brian: and a huge difference between stocks classified as growth vs. those classified as value



John Luke: The divergence between the largest stocks and even just “large” stocks continues to be historically extreme


Source: JPM as of January 2024


John Luke: but you can still make the case that company fundamentals are a justifiable driver of this massive divergence


Data as of 01.30.2024


Joseph: Despite more conservative capital allocation by energy companies, production has reached all-time highs


Data as of December 2023


Joseph: putting the US in a rare position of being a net exporter of crude


Data as of December 2023


Brad: Most observers are now in agreement that consumers holding low-rate debt has reduced the economic impact of the Fed’s rate hikes


Source: Apollo as of December 2023


Brad: but that doesn’t mean there wouldn’t be increased housing activity if mortgage rates move lower


Data as of December 2023





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