The Market in Pictures, February 2

by | Feb 2, 2024 | Blog, Charts

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

 

John Luke: Before the FOMC meeting, markets took comfort that Treasury borrowing needs wouldn’t expand in the first half of 2024

 

Data as of January 2024

 

Beckham: and even a sizable reduction in expectations for the use of short-term bills

 

Source: Reflexivity as of 01.31.2024

 

John Luke: The jobs report shocked the market, implying that the trough of this economic cycle might be behind us

 

Data as of 02.02.2024

 

Brett: this despite a restrictive environment for real (nominal minus inflation) rate policy

 

Source: WSJ as of 01.30.2024

 

John Luke: yet significantly reducing the odds of a rate cut at the FOMC’s March meeting

 

Data as of 02.02.2024

 

Dave: On the earnings front, reports are trickling in and technology is the only area where earnings estimates have moved higher since October

 

Data as of 01.29.2024

 

Dave: this is partly due to maintaining high expectations for profit margins relative to other sectors

 

Source: Strategas as of 01.30.2024

 

Brian: and a huge difference between stocks classified as growth vs. those classified as value

 

 

John Luke: The divergence between the largest stocks and even just “large” stocks continues to be historically extreme

 

Source: JPM as of January 2024

 

John Luke: but you can still make the case that company fundamentals are a justifiable driver of this massive divergence

 

Data as of 01.30.2024

 

Joseph: Despite more conservative capital allocation by energy companies, production has reached all-time highs

 

Data as of December 2023

 

Joseph: putting the US in a rare position of being a net exporter of crude

 

Data as of December 2023

 

Brad: Most observers are now in agreement that consumers holding low-rate debt has reduced the economic impact of the Fed’s rate hikes

 

Source: Apollo as of December 2023

 

Brad: but that doesn’t mean there wouldn’t be increased housing activity if mortgage rates move lower

 

Data as of December 2023

 

 

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Advisory services offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm’s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198.

Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama.

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