Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:


John Luke: Rate expectations have changed dramatically in a few short weeks


Data as of 02.23.2024


Brett: A pause in a Fed rate-hiking cycle has generally been good for stocks; the stats in this pause have been a bit underwhelming


Source: Strategas as of 02.16.2024


Joseph: Around half of the components in the inflation equation have settled in below the Fed’s 2% target


Source: Strategas as of 02.16.2024


John Luke: yet near-term inflation expectations as measured by 1-year breakeven rates (white line) are moving higher


Source: Aptus via Bloomberg as of 02.22.2024


John Luke: driven by the stickier components of inflation


Source: Barclays as of 02.13.2024


John Luke: as we see wage growth far in advance of prevailing interest rates


Source: Luke Groman as of 02.21.2024


Dave: Mag 7 earnings have been the main driver of growth for S&P 500 total earnings


Source: Raymond James as of 02.22.2024


Beckham: and with the average stock guiding towards lower earnings in the quarter ahead


Source: FactSet as of 02.16.2024


Dave: is there really a path to the (much) higher S&P 500 earnings estimates for 2024?


Source: Raymond James as of 02.22.2024


John Luke: Credit spreads are as tight as they generally get


Source: Barclays as of 02.16.2024


Beckham: as large corporations sit on mounds of cash


Source: Bloomberg as of January 2024


Brad: and US government securities offer very little additional comfort given the growing level of debt


Source: Strategas as of February 2024


Dave: Technology funds continue to grab assets at the expense of just about every other group


Data as of 02.16.2024


Brian: as rising rates have seemingly disappeared as a threat to stocks in general


Data as of 02.16.2024


John Luke: Bonds are again off to a historically poor start to the year


Data as of 02.16.2024


Brad: reinforcing the feedback loop attracting assets to where they’ve been treated better over the long term


Source: Money, Simplified as of January 2024


Brad: with more than half of each dollar now going into passive equity funds


Source: Strategas as of February 2024


Dave: Wild to see, but the Japanese stock market has finally eclipsed its bubbly highs of 1989


Data as of 02.22.2024





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