Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:
John Luke: Rate expectations have changed dramatically in a few short weeks
Data as of 02.23.2024
Brett: A pause in a Fed rate-hiking cycle has generally been good for stocks; the stats in this pause have been a bit underwhelming
Source: Strategas as of 02.16.2024
Joseph: Around half of the components in the inflation equation have settled in below the Fed’s 2% target
Source: Strategas as of 02.16.2024
John Luke: yet near-term inflation expectations as measured by 1-year breakeven rates (white line) are moving higher
Source: Aptus via Bloomberg as of 02.22.2024
John Luke: driven by the stickier components of inflation
Source: Barclays as of 02.13.2024
John Luke: as we see wage growth far in advance of prevailing interest rates
Source: Luke Groman as of 02.21.2024
Dave: Mag 7 earnings have been the main driver of growth for S&P 500 total earnings
Source: Raymond James as of 02.22.2024
Beckham: and with the average stock guiding towards lower earnings in the quarter ahead
Source: FactSet as of 02.16.2024
Dave: is there really a path to the (much) higher S&P 500 earnings estimates for 2024?
Source: Raymond James as of 02.22.2024
John Luke: Credit spreads are as tight as they generally get
Source: Barclays as of 02.16.2024
Beckham: as large corporations sit on mounds of cash
Source: Bloomberg as of January 2024
Brad: and US government securities offer very little additional comfort given the growing level of debt
Source: Strategas as of February 2024
Dave: Technology funds continue to grab assets at the expense of just about every other group
Data as of 02.16.2024
Brian: as rising rates have seemingly disappeared as a threat to stocks in general
Data as of 02.16.2024
John Luke: Bonds are again off to a historically poor start to the year
Data as of 02.16.2024
Brad: reinforcing the feedback loop attracting assets to where they’ve been treated better over the long term
Source: Money, Simplified as of January 2024
Brad: with more than half of each dollar now going into passive equity funds
Source: Strategas as of February 2024
Dave: Wild to see, but the Japanese stock market has finally eclipsed its bubbly highs of 1989
Data as of 02.22.2024
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Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed.
Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially.
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