Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:


John Luke: Market expectations for 2024 interest rate cuts are slowly moving back towards FOMC guidance


Data as of 02.05.2024


John Luke: as the underlying economy is producing data indicating that the inflation battle is still underway


Source: Bloomberg as of 02.05.2024


Dave: and long bonds are suffering as a result, relative to historical post-hiking cycle performance


Source: Strategas as of 02.04.2024


John Luke: Large growth continues to dominate


Source: Morningstar as of 02.05.2024


Brad: but one of the “Mag 7” is losing its place


Source: Strategas as of 02.06.2023


Brian: which is something that has often occurred in the following year for the largest market-cap companies


Source: GMO as of Jan 2024


 Dave: and looking out a few quarters shows the possibility of some serious earnings gains for smaller companies


Source: Strategas as of 02.07.2023


Beckham: It’s not a surprise to see how far ahead tech is, at the expense of all other sectors


Source: Grindstone Intelligence


John Luke: but now prices for technology stocks have raced far ahead of their own earnings



Joseph: while the neglected energy companies shovel cash flow into buybacks and dividends


Data as of January 2024


 Dave: Earnings estimates are bumping slightly off of the bottom


Data as of 01.31.2024


Brad: as the trickle of reports turns into a flood, and shows better growth than expected a month ago


Data as of 02.02.2024


Brian: Confidence among corporate executives is moving nicely higher from multi-year lows


Data as of 02.08.2024


Beckham: as inflation worries fade but equally important, the general level of interest expense among corporations


Data as of January 2024


Joseph: Everyone knows most foreign markets have significantly lagged the U.S., but this pic shows an interest set of dynamics


Source: Raymond James as of 02.09.2024


Brett: Regular reminder, ETFs operate with a different (better!) tax structure than mutual funds


Via @nategeraci





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