Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:
Dave: Have we entered a new regime of how stocks and bonds interact?
Source: Strategas as of 12.30.22
Mark: speaking of correlations, it’s interesting to see how dispersion can kick in as earnings seasons get underway
Source: Susquehanna as of 01.09.23
Beckham: Earnings estimates would appear to have room to move lower, using leading indicators
Source: Morgan Stanley as of 01.09.23
Dave: and European earnings would appear to have room to move lower as well
Source: Bernstein as of 12.30.22
Brad: Data is building in favor of a recession ahead
Source: Strategas as of 01.10.23
Dave: but it’s important to remember that expansions and bull markets have last much longer than contractions and bear markets
Source: Schwab as of 12.30.22
Brad: Crude oil production hasn’t reached its pre-COVID levels
Source: Strategas as of 01.06.23
Joseph: and with assets maturing it would create quite a squeeze if/when we need it
John Luke: China has been loosening policy at a time most countries (including the US) are tightening
Dave: but generally China has been little more than a trading vehicle for decades, growth or not
Source: Strategas as of 01.09.23
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