The Market in Pictures, January 20

by | Jan 20, 2023 | Blog, Charts

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:


John Luke: It’s great to see actual yield available for the first time since before the financial crisis


Source: BlackRock as of 01.03.2023


John Luke: though the other side of that is a significant cut into the relative value of stocks vs. bonds



Data as of 01.18.2023


Brad: Also working against equities is the emerging reduction in earnings estimates


Data as of 01.19.2023


Brad: at a time of record profit margins


Data as of 01.18


Brad: This sets up a potentially tough outlook for stocks, at least until we see earnings estimate bottom


Data as of 01.19.2023


Dave: We’ve finally compressed enough to reach the average valuation of recent decades


Source: Bianco as of 01.17.2023


Joseph: with small cap stocks slightly chipping into their historically wide discount to large caps


Source: Strategas as of 01.17.2023


Brad: The bounce in equities in recent months has been led by foreign markets


Data as of 01.19.2023


Joseph: partly driven by the different makeup of foreign equity markets vs. the US


Source: Strategas as of 01.17.2023


Brad: In general, the bounce since the fall has been rather muted relative to historic bear market bottoms


Source: Strategas as of 01.18.2023


Brad: with gold bouncing just as much as the S&P 500


Source: Strategas as of 01.18.2023


Brad: with the year-to-date bounce looking like simple mean reversion after a rough 2022 


Source: Strategas as of 01.19.2023


John Luke: Going forward, it’s possible earnings will reclaim a role as a key market driver


Data as of 01.13.2023


John Luke: while we wait for the Fed and the bond market to reconnect their views about the future path of policy







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