The Market in Pictures, January 20

by | Jan 20, 2023 | Blog, Charts

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

 

John Luke: It’s great to see actual yield available for the first time since before the financial crisis

 

Source: BlackRock as of 01.03.2023

 

John Luke: though the other side of that is a significant cut into the relative value of stocks vs. bonds

 

 

Data as of 01.18.2023

 

Brad: Also working against equities is the emerging reduction in earnings estimates

 

Data as of 01.19.2023

 

Brad: at a time of record profit margins

 

Data as of 01.18

 

Brad: This sets up a potentially tough outlook for stocks, at least until we see earnings estimate bottom

 

Data as of 01.19.2023

 

Dave: We’ve finally compressed enough to reach the average valuation of recent decades

 

Source: Bianco as of 01.17.2023

 

Joseph: with small cap stocks slightly chipping into their historically wide discount to large caps

 

Source: Strategas as of 01.17.2023

 

Brad: The bounce in equities in recent months has been led by foreign markets

 

Data as of 01.19.2023

 

Joseph: partly driven by the different makeup of foreign equity markets vs. the US

 

Source: Strategas as of 01.17.2023

 

Brad: In general, the bounce since the fall has been rather muted relative to historic bear market bottoms

 

Source: Strategas as of 01.18.2023

 

Brad: with gold bouncing just as much as the S&P 500

 

Source: Strategas as of 01.18.2023

 

Brad: with the year-to-date bounce looking like simple mean reversion after a rough 2022 

 

Source: Strategas as of 01.19.2023

 

John Luke: Going forward, it’s possible earnings will reclaim a role as a key market driver

 

Data as of 01.13.2023

 

John Luke: while we wait for the Fed and the bond market to reconnect their views about the future path of policy

 

 

 

 

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