Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from broadening attempts to profitability, earnings and non-earnings, and midterms and the economy. Stay safe out there this weekend!
Brian: The recent stretch of underperformance by the broader market has been historic
Dave: and the short-term attempts to reverse course have ultimately failed
Source: Raymond James as of 01.20.2026
Dave: so will this attempt to reach beyond the megacaps stick?
Source: Strategas as of 01.16.2026
Brad: The biggest challenge for smaller stocks is their inferior profitability as a group, relative to the biggest of the big
Brett: and ultimately, profitability is a key input to valuation support
Source: Sandbox Daily as of 01.21.2026
Dave: Recent earnings seasons have far surpassed initial expectations
John Luke: with a wide range of price outcomes based on company-specific results
Data as of 01.15.2026
Dave: It’s been one of the longer stretches of non-earning small caps outperforming profitable ones
Jake: with the disparity only growing
Source: Apollo as of 01.20.2026
Ten: It’s a midterm year, which has tended to be the weakest of the 4 years in a presidential cycle
Source: Bloomberg
John Luke: with summer doldrums the period is most exposed to investor anxiety
Data as of 01.16.2026
John Luke: That said, avoiding recessions has been a key determinant of outcomes
Data as of 01.16.2026
John Luke: with a similar “no recession” qualification in easing cycles
Beckham: Thankfully, consumers are generally sitting in a strong position
Brad: and a large amount of federal stimulus is further supporting the economy
Source: Strategas as of 01.15.2026
John: We’ve seen some reluctance from investors to finance new AI spending, but overall credit appetite remains healthy
Source: Apollo as of 01.22.2026
Brian: with credit spreads the tightest they’ve been this century
Data as of 01.21.2026
John Luke: and bonds as a whole showing much less angst than in recent years
Joseph: Some in the media like to call the AI boom a repeat of the dotcom bubble, but this cycle has been much more closely tied to actual earnings
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