Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are contributing to investor activity , from rate expectations to growth drivers to government spending and comparisons of foreign markets to ours. Enjoy!
Joseph: The US Dollar has moved steadily higher for the past decade
Data as of 01.17.2025
Arch: and its strength has not exactly gone unnoticed
Dave: We’d all love to see small caps run higher, but large caps have been the home of better earnings
Source: Raymond James as of 01.22.2025
Brett: and where the dollar goes hasn’t had a historically consistent impact on earnings
Data as of December 2024
Brian: Smaller companies as measured by the equal-weight S&P 500 have done well after past instances of high market concentration
Chart via @lhamtil
Brad: maybe avoidance of a recession can finally lend support to the broader market
Data as of 01.21.2025
Beckham: European stocks have been left for dead, but have seen a resurgence in the past month
John Luke: perhaps reflecting another manager attempt at capturing the discount vs. US stocks
Data as of 01.21.2025
Dave: The challenge for European stocks is the reliance on low-growth sectors relative to more dynamic economies
Source: Goldman Sachs as of December 2024
Beckham: but aerospace and defense stocks have led the way in the recent advance
Data as of 01.17.2025
Brad: Speaking of historically low growth, electricity generation has been consistently slow but is seeing an upturn as technology needs advance
Joseph: and with crude oil production surging, power generation is becoming the obstacle to maximizing industrial growth
Data as of December 2024
John Luke: We hope DOGE can find opportunities to save money, but most of the government spending is baked in at levels higher than revenues
Brett: meaning most countries including ours will continue to borrow money and eat away at purchasing power
This set of charts paints an evolving picture of where we’ve been and where we might go. As always, we’ll continue monitoring and interpreting the evidence to help navigate what’s ahead.
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Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed.
Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially.
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