Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:


Brett: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is said to be the Fed’s favorite indicator, and it’s getting into their target range


Data as of 01.25.2024


John Luke: that said, markets are actually expecting one fewer rate cut than they were two weeks ago


Data as of 01.22.2024


John Luke: and Fed speakers seem reluctant to embrace market expectations of significant rate cuts


Data as of 01.19.2024


Dave: It’s generally accepted that the FOMC prefers to avoid being seen as political, but election years haven’t impacted their activity in the past


Source: Morgan Stanley as of 01.24.2024


Brian: That said, no matter what they do there will be plenty of people accusing them of taking sides


Source: Aptus as of 01.22.2024


Beckham: Making the Fed’s job trickier is the evidence that maybe the slowest economic conditions have already occurred


Source: @LizAnnSonders as of 01.22.2024


John Luke: as US consumers in general are sitting with very strong balance sheets


Data as of December 2023


Brian: While the cost of mortgages relative to actual mortgage-backed bonds remains well above historic norms


Source: Aptus as of 01.24.2024


John Luke: corporate credit spreads are as low as they’ve been in years


Source: State Street as of 12.31.2023


Joseph: leading corporations to issue debt at favorable levels


Source: Financial Times as of 01.18.2024


Dave: While the semiconductor industry has been eating its way into larger space in the S&P 500


Source: Strategas as of 01.22.2024


Brad: the broader universe of stocks has had underwhelming performance since the peak in late 2021


Source: Strategas as of 01.23.2024


Brad: and value stocks also coming out of a year of extreme underperformance


Data as of January 2023


John Luke: US dominance over foreign markets has been quite dramatic in recent years



Brett: but these performance cycles have often been long in nature


Source: Bank of America


Brad: As tired as we all are of talking about the Mag 7, it’s important to recognize that markets aren’t crazy; their businesses are performing better than most



Brian: and if you’re really worried about their impact, it’s as cheap as it’s ever been to buy hedges on the S&P 500


Source: Aptus as of 01.24.2024






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