The Market in Pictures, January 26

by | Jan 26, 2024 | Blog, Charts

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

 

Brett: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is said to be the Fed’s favorite indicator, and it’s getting into their target range

 

Data as of 01.25.2024

 

John Luke: that said, markets are actually expecting one fewer rate cut than they were two weeks ago

 

Data as of 01.22.2024

 

John Luke: and Fed speakers seem reluctant to embrace market expectations of significant rate cuts

 

Data as of 01.19.2024

 

Dave: It’s generally accepted that the FOMC prefers to avoid being seen as political, but election years haven’t impacted their activity in the past

 

Source: Morgan Stanley as of 01.24.2024

 

Brian: That said, no matter what they do there will be plenty of people accusing them of taking sides

 

Source: Aptus as of 01.22.2024

 

Beckham: Making the Fed’s job trickier is the evidence that maybe the slowest economic conditions have already occurred

 

Source: @LizAnnSonders as of 01.22.2024

 

John Luke: as US consumers in general are sitting with very strong balance sheets

 

Data as of December 2023

 

Brian: While the cost of mortgages relative to actual mortgage-backed bonds remains well above historic norms

 

Source: Aptus as of 01.24.2024

 

John Luke: corporate credit spreads are as low as they’ve been in years

 

Source: State Street as of 12.31.2023

 

Joseph: leading corporations to issue debt at favorable levels

 

Source: Financial Times as of 01.18.2024

 

Dave: While the semiconductor industry has been eating its way into larger space in the S&P 500

 

Source: Strategas as of 01.22.2024

 

Brad: the broader universe of stocks has had underwhelming performance since the peak in late 2021

 

Source: Strategas as of 01.23.2024

 

Brad: and value stocks also coming out of a year of extreme underperformance

 

Data as of January 2023

 

John Luke: US dominance over foreign markets has been quite dramatic in recent years

 

 

Brett: but these performance cycles have often been long in nature

 

Source: Bank of America

 

Brad: As tired as we all are of talking about the Mag 7, it’s important to recognize that markets aren’t crazy; their businesses are performing better than most

 

 

Brian: and if you’re really worried about their impact, it’s as cheap as it’s ever been to buy hedges on the S&P 500

 

Source: Aptus as of 01.24.2024

 

 

 

Disclosures

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed.

 Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially.

 This commentary offers generalized research, not personalized investment advice. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment services or performance. Nothing in this commentary should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future investment returns. All investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with an investment & tax professional before implementing any investment strategy. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible.

 Advisory services are offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm’s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198. Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama. ACA-2401-35.

Explore the Aptus Blog

Advisory services offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm’s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198.

Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama.

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aptus Capital Advisors (“Aptus”) and/or the individual Aptus Employee being interviewed as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Aptus reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs and there is no guarantee that such assessments of investments will be accurate. There is no guarantee that strategies or recommendations will equal or exceed any expectations or goals discussed. The discussions, outlook, and viewpoints featured are not intended to be investment advice and do not take into account specific client investment objectives.

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aptus Capital Advisors (“Aptus”) and are subject to change without notice.

Aptus social media posts, including third party material, are provided for information purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security, product or service. Aptus posts are based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate and do not purport to be a complete summary of the available data. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Aptus does not endorse or take responsibility for any content, advertising, products, advice, opinions, recommendations, or other materials posted by followers or other third parties on Aptus’ social media sites. Any comments or opinions posted by another user should be attributed to that user and not Aptus.

Aptus is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aptus including our investment strategies, fees and objectives can be found in our ADV Part 2, which is available at www.aptuscapitaladvisors.com or by calling 251.517.7198.

Enhancing Outcomes

Your job is to help clients meet their goals. Part of that is capturing the compounding power of markets, part is making sure the path matches client expectations. How portfolios get from point A to point B matters.