Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful of charts we think are good summations of investor activity, from a historic rally with improving breadth, to record earnings and margins, the AI buildout reaching the labor market, and aligning portfolios with the mountain of maturing government debt. Have a great weekend!
Brad: Three and a half years in, this bull market is tracking above the top decile of history.
Source: Goldman Sachs as of 07.06.2026
Brian: It is no longer a handful of names doing the work. 68% of stocks are above their 200-day average, and 7 of 11 sectors are improving internally since the June high.
Source: Strategas as of 07.05.2026
Mark: Mag 7 valuation premium over the other 493 has nearly vanished, a healthy de-rating rather than a derailing.
Joseph: Beneath a calm surface, single stock volatility is anything but calm. The gap between constituent-level vol and the VIX just hit a record.
Data as of 07.09.2026
Dave: The anxiety is concentrated in tech, with Nasdaq 100 volatility commanding a near-record premium to the S&P 500.
Source: Nations Indexes via WSJ as of 07.07.2026
Beckham: Fundamentals continue to backstop the rally, with forward earnings estimates marching toward $400.
Source: Yardeni Research as of 07.02.2026
Ten: It is not just the giants. Margins for the average S&P 500 company just hit a record 14.9%.
Brett: The AI buildout keeps getting bigger, with combined hyperscaler capex estimates now approaching $1 trillion for 2027.
Source: Goldman Sachs as of 07.02.2026
John: That spend is rippling through the labor market. AI-exposed jobs declined in terms of postings in 2022, but have been leading the recovery since 2025.
Source: Indeed Hiring Lab as of 12.31.2025
Mike: AI is showing up in the job titles themselves, tripling in the US in just four years.
Source: Indeed as of 3.31.2026
Matt: The broader labor story is still about supply, with more than 1.2 million older workers leaving the workforce since 2019.
Graphic via Raymond James as of 07.03.2026
JG: Yet private hiring has quietly accelerated over the past 6 to 9 months.
Graphic via Raymond James as of 07.03.2026
JD: That resilience is showing up at the Fed, where the tone of the minutes just turned its most hawkish on inflation since 2022.
Source: Bloomberg Intelligence as of 07.08.2026
Beckham: Markets agree. While oil has round-tripped the entire Iran spike, 2-year yields have not. The energy shock is over; the rate shock is still to be determined.
Source: Apollo as of 07.08.2026
Dave: Cheaper energy remains an American advantage, with US production still lapping the field.
Source: EIA as of 12.31.2025
John Luke: Meanwhile, unlike the 1990s, the budget deficit is the main source of corporate profits in this cycle.
Derek: That support is not free. Federal interest expense has surged past 3% of GDP, roughly $900B per year.
Source: Seaport Research Partners as of 07.07.2026
Jake: This is likely to go higher. $10T of Treasury debt will roll within a year at average rates well above the maturing coupons.
Source: Michael Taylor (@Mike_Taylor1972) via X as of 07.09.2026
Brian: Small companies feel rates too. Russell 2000 interest burdens have more than doubled since 2020, while the S&P 500’s have fallen. Higher for longer is not a uniform tax.
Source: Apollo as of 07.03.2026
John Luke: Zooming out, the 2020s are shaping up as another strong decade for stocks and the worst on record for bonds. A reminder that how you allocate matters.
Source: Charlie Bilello as of 06.30.2026
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