The Market in Pictures, July 18

by | Jul 18, 2025 | Blog, Charts

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from FOMC speculation to inflation breakdowns to earnings forecasts and market sentiment. Have a great weekend!

 

Jake: This may have been the week markets decided to start discounting the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) chairman, with prediction markets seeing a 3-man race

 

Data as of 07.16.2025

 

 

Jake: while fund managers have been leaning in Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s direction

 

Data as of 07.11.2025

 

 

Beckham: A challenge for the next chairman may be finding ways to regain influence on the longer-term rates

 

Data as of 07.16.2025

 

 

Ten: as a premium has become demanded in long-term Treasuries, presumably due to deficit and debt concerns

 

Source: @ernietedeschi as of 07.16.2025

 

 

Arch: with the widely-followed mortgage rate stuck at higher levels than both buyers and sellers would like

 

Data as of 07.16.2025

 

 

Dave: Consumer prices as measured by the CPI have seemingly stabilized at levels lower than a few years ago but stubbornly higher than most would like

 

Source: Raymond James as of 07.14.2025

 

 

John Luke: Housing and services remain the primary factors keeping inflation above the Fed’s stated target of 2%

 

Source: Stifel as of 07.16.2025

 

 

John Luke: While Core Services remains the visible thorn in the side of monetary policy makers

 

Data as of 07.16.2025

 

 

John Luke: we may be starting to see upward pressure on what have been flat prices for Core Goods

 

Data as of 07.16.2025

 

 

Dave: In keeping with historical patterns, and amplified by tariff talk, earnings estimates for the just-ended 2nd quarter have come down quite a bit from the levels of a few months ago

 

Source: Strategas as of 07.15.2025

 

 

Dave: making forecasts for the quarters following Q2 a bit hard to believe, especially as you work down the company size scale

 

Source: Raymond James as of 07.14.2025

 

 

Dave: That said, S&P 500 companies as a whole have been stalwarts at underpromising and overdelivering

 

 

 

JD: It’s hilarious to watch Wall Street strategists run their price targets up and down based on prevailing prices and sentiment

 

 

Dave: The historic equity market recovery from the April lows may warrant a pause, but similar moves in the past have generally continued higher

 

Source: Strategas as of 07.14.2025

 

 

Brad: and markets trading at all-time highs have a good history of continuing higher

 

 

 

Joseph: While institutions have seemingly fought much of the recovery, individuals have been aggressive buyers

 

Data as of 07.14.2025

 

 

Brian: and they’ve been joined by corporations happy to continue putting cash to work despite the uncertainty

 

 

 

 

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Advisory services offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm’s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198.

Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama.

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