Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from junk stocks to megacaps, to housing and liquidity, to the impact of tariffs and trade on earnings and international economic power. Have a great weekend!
Brad: The past few weeks have been one of the wilder periods of low-quality speculation in recent years
Brian: with retail traders embracing technology companies with questionable fundamentals
Source: Goldman Sachs as of 07.23.2025
Dave: Over longer periods of time, the inclusion of low quality companies has amplified the performance disparity across indexes of varying market caps
Data as of June 2025
Dave: with investor preference for more reliable fundamentals a significant factor in the dominance of US large cap stocks over other equity styles
Source: Raymond James as of June 2025
Dave: and small caps in particular being hammered by the shift to a higher interest rate regime
Source: Raymond James as of June 2025
Dave: An obvious tailwind for larger US tech companies is the explosion in artificial intelligence (AI), clearly reflected in the extreme growth of data usage
Brett: and while we get short periods when investors anticipate a slowing in the rate of AI growth, the AI leaders have continued to roar back and drive performance
Brad: A weaker US dollar gets discussed often, as a tailwind to earnings, but the actual impact is not that large
Data as of June 2025
John Luke: so most of the earnings (and performance) leadership has been driven by superior fundamentals
Data as of 07.21.2025
Ten: US exporters are doing just fine, regardless of tariff concerns
Data as of 07.16.2025
Arch: building on a US-centric ability for businesses to adapt and grow better than foreign companies
Jake: And while China benefitted dramatically from US companies’ desire to cut costs
Data as of 07.16.2025
Beckham: its rise in economic strength faces a serious demographic challenge
Source: Apollo as of 07.23.2025
Brad: Markets have likely benefitted from structural liquidity flowing into financial assets
Dave: but that support starts disappearing as the summer heat fades
Source: Strategas as of 07.14.2025
Joseph: One piece of the economy that’s clearly NOT clicking is housing, as activity continues to fall
Data as of 07.22.2025
Joseph: and the backdrop of low listings and high prices makes it really hard for aspirational homeowners to enter the market
Data as of 07.22.2025
JD: But just like individual stocks can have their own bull and bear markets, real estate dynamics are generally tied to local conditions
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Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed.
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