Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:


John Luke: Mortgage rates are moving higher again


Source: YCharts


John Luke: but US buyers are in far different shape than in other parts of the world


Source: HT Logan Mohtashami as of June 2023


Beckham: The Yield Curve is the primary marker folks point to when talking about a coming recession


Data as of 07.05.2023


John Luke: but credit spreads don’t always give huge lead times from widening until recessions hit


Data as of June 2023


Brad: Consensus earnings have fallen steadily from last year’s high


Source: Strategas as of 07.03.2023


Derek: but it’s energy that has been responsible for the bulk of the decline in 2023


Data as of 07.03.2023


Brad: Expansion of price/earnings multiples has been the primary driver of this year’s equity gains


Source: Piper as of 07.03.2023


Beckham: which is resulting in a widening spread between earnings yield and real Treasury yields


Source: The Market Ear as of 07.03.2023


Dave: This year has been a resumption of the tough stretch for value stocks


Data as of 06.30.2023


Dave: and even tougher as you go down the size spectrum, as shown by equal-weight vs. cap-weight


Source: Strategas as of 06.30.2023


Dave: you can also see it in tech vs. non-tech


Data as of 06.30.2023


Joseph: On cue, retail investors started to get bullish after the market took off without them


Source: Bespoke as of 07.06.2023






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