The Market in Pictures, June 14

by | Jun 14, 2024 | Blog, Charts

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

John Luke: FOMC members have very little confidence in their inflation outlooks

 

Source: FOMC as of 06.12.2024

 

Beckham: but we know that the typical consumer is looking at the cumulative impact of the past few years, not what happens month-to-month

 

Source: TS Lombard as of 06.11.2024

 

Brad: thankfully, stocks have historically done well when inflation flattened out

 

Data as of 06.12.2024

 

John Luke: Armed with this week’s tame inflation data and dovish FOMC comments, markets have shifted rate forecasts lower for the year ahead

 

Source: CME FedWatch Tool

 

John Luke: landing on a consensus of a full percentage point of rate cuts by April of next year

 

Data as of 06.14.2024

 

Joseph: All it took was a slight fall in mortgage rates to see a huge bump in new applications

 

Source: Daily Chartbook as of 06.12.2024

 

Brian: which can hopefully confirm the recent fall in recession odds

 

Source: Apollo as of 06.07.2024

 

Dave: also being reinforced by comments from corporate CEOs

 

Data as of 06.07.2024

 

Brett: The broader market continues to lag what’s happening at the top end of market capitalization

 

Source: Barchart as of 06.13.2024

 

Arch: and we’re seeing a wide range of outcomes at the individual stock level

 

Data as of 06.10.2024

 

Dave: We continue to see performance dominance by the biggest of the big

 

Source: Strategas as of 06.10.2024

 

Dave: and not only a continuation but an actual acceleration

   

Source: Goldman Sachs as of 06.12.2024

 

Dave: that said, the dominance is not totally unjustified, as the largest companies are also delivering the best business performance

  

Source: Strategas as of 06.14.2024

 

Brad: and as a whole, the S&P 500 valuation increase has run parallel with high cash flow generation as asset-light models expand

  

Data as of May 2024

 

Brian: “T-Bill and Chill” sounds great until you see your purchasing power erode year after year!

 

Source: Aptus via Bloomberg

 

 

Disclosures

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed.

Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially.

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Advisory services offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm’s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198.

Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama.

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aptus Capital Advisors (“Aptus”) and/or the individual Aptus Employee being interviewed as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Aptus reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs and there is no guarantee that such assessments of investments will be accurate. There is no guarantee that strategies or recommendations will equal or exceed any expectations or goals discussed. The discussions, outlook, and viewpoints featured are not intended to be investment advice and do not take into account specific client investment objectives.

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