Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

John Luke: FOMC members have very little confidence in their inflation outlooks


Source: FOMC as of 06.12.2024


Beckham: but we know that the typical consumer is looking at the cumulative impact of the past few years, not what happens month-to-month


Source: TS Lombard as of 06.11.2024


Brad: thankfully, stocks have historically done well when inflation flattened out


Data as of 06.12.2024


John Luke: Armed with this week’s tame inflation data and dovish FOMC comments, markets have shifted rate forecasts lower for the year ahead


Source: CME FedWatch Tool


John Luke: landing on a consensus of a full percentage point of rate cuts by April of next year


Data as of 06.14.2024


Joseph: All it took was a slight fall in mortgage rates to see a huge bump in new applications


Source: Daily Chartbook as of 06.12.2024


Brian: which can hopefully confirm the recent fall in recession odds


Source: Apollo as of 06.07.2024


Dave: also being reinforced by comments from corporate CEOs


Data as of 06.07.2024


Brett: The broader market continues to lag what’s happening at the top end of market capitalization


Source: Barchart as of 06.13.2024


Arch: and we’re seeing a wide range of outcomes at the individual stock level


Data as of 06.10.2024


Dave: We continue to see performance dominance by the biggest of the big


Source: Strategas as of 06.10.2024


Dave: and not only a continuation but an actual acceleration


Source: Goldman Sachs as of 06.12.2024


Dave: that said, the dominance is not totally unjustified, as the largest companies are also delivering the best business performance


Source: Strategas as of 06.14.2024


Brad: and as a whole, the S&P 500 valuation increase has run parallel with high cash flow generation as asset-light models expand


Data as of May 2024


Brian: “T-Bill and Chill” sounds great until you see your purchasing power erode year after year!


Source: Aptus via Bloomberg





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