Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:
John Luke: Most of the yield curve has separated itself from the Fed Funds rate, with seemingly no rush to sync up
Source: Strategas as of 06.14.2023
John Luke: Clearly the Fed sees that inflation means more than just the latest CPI headline
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics as of 6.15.2023
John Luke: with services being a stickier item than goods ever was
Source: Bianco Research as of 5.31.2023
John Luke: For better or worse, corporate profit margins remain off the charts
Source: Bloomberg as of 5.31.2023
Dave: and based on future earnings estimates, strategists think this will remain the case
Source: Morgan Stanley as of 6.15.2023
John Luke: The impact of quantitative easing is most obvious in the huge expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet
Source: Strategas as of 06.12.2023
John Luke: which will be tougher to maintain as higher rates push interest expense higher
Source: Strategas as of 6.14.2023
Dave: Judging by recent bear markets, this strength is too much to maintain a “bear market” label
Source: Bloomberg as of 06.14.2023
Dave: but bear markets generally end with high unemployment, not record lows
Source: BLS as of 6.16.2023
John Luke: and with valuations so high
Source: Strategas as of 6.12.2023
John Luke: Investors have been flocking to these new higher rates in bonds, but may be missing a huge dividend growth opportunity
Source: Bank of America as of 6.15.2023
John Luke: Compounders can only do their thing if held for the long-term, interesting look at the past decade’s biggest wealth creators
Source: Mauboussin as of 12.31.2022
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